Mardin 1969
vs
Manisa F.K.
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Mardin 1969 1–0 Manisa F.K.
The model makes it 53% Mardin 1969, 28% draw, 19% Manisa F.K. — fair odds of 1.89, 3.57 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Mardin 1969 1.58, Manisa F.K. 0.76.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Mardin 1969: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Mardin 1969 are 5th on 18 points from 10 games; Manisa F.K. are 15th on 9 points from 9 games — 1. Lig.
- Mardin 1969 have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Fatih Karagümrük.
- Manisa F.K. have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Esenler Erokspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mardin 1969 at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K.
Mardin 1969
- W1-0Fatih Karagümrük15 October 2026
- W2-1away to Bursaspor11 October 2026
- L0-1Kayserispor20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Iğdır FK13 September 2026
- W1-0Bodrum FK7 September 2026
Manisa F.K.
- D1-1Esenler Erokspor15 October 2026
- L2-3away to Kayserispor10 October 2026
- L0-1İstanbulspor20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fatih Karagümrük13 September 2026
- L1-2Bursaspor7 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mardin 1969 had two goals or fewer.
- Manisa F.K. did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Manisa F.K. conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Manisa F.K. scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mardin 1969 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 18 |
| 15 | Manisa F.K. | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Mardin 1969
Chance to finish in the top four · 46% today
Manisa F.K.
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: Mardin 1969 and Manisa F.K.
Mardin 1969
GoalsAssists
- T. Teklić31
- O. Kayode31
Manisa F.K.
GoalsAssists
- C. Sylla52
- J. Anziani51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Mardin 1969 carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.32 for Manisa F.K.. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Mardin 1969 and 0.76 for Manisa F.K.. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mardin 1969 rate 0.55 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Manisa F.K. rate 0.61 and 1.77.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mardin 1969 a 8.9% chance of the title and Manisa F.K. 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mardin 1969 the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Mardin 1969 against 0.76 for Manisa F.K.. Mardin 1969's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.77 for Manisa F.K..
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mardin 1969 at home · Manisa F.K. away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Mardin 1969 10, Manisa F.K. 9.
Mardin 1969 score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Manisa F.K. have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Mardin 1969
- at İstanbulspor1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 45%
- vs Batman Petrolspor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 53%
- vs Bandırmaspor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 39%
- at Muğlaspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 38%
Manisa F.K.
- vs Batman Petrolspor31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 44%
- at Keçiörengücü7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 19%
- vs Pendikspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 48%
- at Ümraniyespor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.