Fatih Karagümrük
vs
Keçiörengücü
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Keçiörengücü
The model makes it 42% Fatih Karagümrük, 28% draw, 30% Keçiörengücü — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fatih Karagümrük 1.48, Keçiörengücü 1.15.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fatih Karagümrük are 10th on 13 points from 10 games; Keçiörengücü are 6th on 17 points from 10 games — 1. Lig.
- Fatih Karagümrük have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Mardin 1969.
- Keçiörengücü are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Iğdır FK.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 April 2025, ended Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Keçiörengücü.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fatih Karagümrük at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü
Fatih Karagümrük
- L0-1away to Mardin 196915 October 2026
- D1-1Muğlaspor11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Esenler Erokspor19 September 2026
- D1-1Manisa F.K.13 September 2026
- L3-4away to Batman Petrolspor6 September 2026
Keçiörengücü
- D0-0Iğdır FK14 October 2026
- W2-0away to Bodrum FK9 October 2026
- D1-1Sivasspor19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Vanspor FK12 September 2026
- W3-0Sarıyer5 September 2026
What these results say
- Fatih Karagümrük failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fatih Karagümrük scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fatih Karagümrük conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Keçiörengücü went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Keçiörengücü scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Keçiörengücü had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Keçiörengücü | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fatih Karagümrük
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
Keçiörengücü
Chance to finish in the top four · 48% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü
- 27 April 2025Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 22 December 2024Keçiörengücü 0–1 Fatih Karagümrük1. Lig
- 12 July 2020Keçiörengücü 3–0 Fatih Karagümrük1. Lig
- 22 December 2019Fatih Karagümrük 0–2 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 29 April 2017Keçiörengücü 2–3 Fatih Karagümrük2. Lig
- 17 December 2016Fatih Karagümrük 1–2 Keçiörengücü2. Lig
Leading scorers: Fatih Karagümrük and Keçiörengücü
Fatih Karagümrük
GoalsAssists
- A. Pešić52
Keçiörengücü
GoalsAssists
- M. Diouf52
- F. Ezeh33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fatih Karagümrük carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.53 for Keçiörengücü. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.15 for Keçiörengücü. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fatih Karagümrük rate 0.67 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Keçiörengücü rate 0.72 and 1.36.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Keçiörengücü, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fatih Karagümrük a 3.1% chance of the title and Keçiörengücü 9.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fatih Karagümrük the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.15 for Keçiörengücü. Fatih Karagümrük's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.36 for Keçiörengücü.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fatih Karagümrük at home · Keçiörengücü away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Fatih Karagümrük 10, Keçiörengücü 10.
Fatih Karagümrük score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Keçiörengücü have let in 1 there.
Keçiörengücü score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Fatih Karagümrük have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fatih Karagümrük
- at Sarıyer24 Oct · 1. Ligwin 39%
- vs Pendikspor31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 57%
- at Bandırmaspor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 28%
- vs Boluspor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 69%
- at Antalyaspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 29%
Keçiörengücü
- vs Bursaspor25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 39%
- at Esenler Erokspor30 Oct · 1. Ligwin 33%
- vs Manisa F.K.7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 57%
- at İstanbulspor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 48%
- vs Kayserispor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.