Manisa F.K.
vs
Esenler Erokspor
1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Manisa F.K. 1-1 Esenler Erokspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Manisa F.K., 29% draw, 33% Esenler Erokspor — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Manisa F.K. 1.30, Esenler Erokspor 1.17.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Model insights: Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manisa F.K. at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Egemen YayliG
- 22K. YurdakulD
- 5C. HérelleD
- 45Ada IbikD
- 3O. KaynakD
- 7Y. TalumM
- 60B. TouréM
- 6A. ÇankayaM
- 70A. VargasM
- 20Y. BenrahouF
- 23J. AnzianiF
- 21E. AkboğaM
- 99Metehan BaşarG
- 24Y. DursunM
- 27Y. GürelerD
- 4F. İnalD
- 17Osman KahramanF
- 2Yunus Emre KöseD
- 11N. LeminaM
- 10J. LindsethM
- 22E. CanpolatG
- 70F. OrakD
- 21B. ÖztürkD
- 4Luccas ClaroD
- 33E. AlićD
- 7N. JanvierM
- 11M. FayeM
- 8G. KangaM
- 5M. OkyarM
- 17B. ÇobanM
- 99P. GuèyeF
- 27F. YazganM
- 88A. ZeqiriM
- 34E. ÇetinG
- 39E. KaşD
- 10R. NiyazM
- 6T. KaçarM
- 9K. KanatsızkuşF
- 53Y. ErdoğanM
- 20M. BuljubašićM
Form going into Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor
Manisa F.K.
- L2-3away to Kayserispor10 October 2026
- L0-1İstanbulspor20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fatih Karagümrük13 September 2026
- L1-2Bursaspor7 September 2026
Esenler Erokspor
- W1-0away to İstanbulspor10 October 2026
- L0-2Fatih Karagümrük19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bursaspor13 September 2026
- L0-3Kayserispor7 September 2026
What these results say
- Manisa F.K. did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Manisa F.K. conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Manisa F.K. scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Esenler Erokspor failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Esenler Erokspor conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Manisa F.K. | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Esenler Erokspor | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor
- 13 February 2026Esenler Erokspor 3–1 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
- 20 September 2025Manisa F.K. 3–4 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig
- 8 March 2025Esenler Erokspor 1–1 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
- 28 October 2024Manisa F.K. 0–1 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Manisa F.K. and Esenler Erokspor
Manisa F.K.
GoalsAssists
- C. Sylla52
- J. Anziani51
Esenler Erokspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.30 goals for Manisa F.K. and 1.17 for Esenler Erokspor; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ada Ibik 80' (Manisa F.K.), Guélor Kanga 90' (Esenler Erokspor).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manisa F.K. the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Manisa F.K. against 1.17 for Esenler Erokspor. Manisa F.K.'s attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.31 for Esenler Erokspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.