Caen
vs
La Roche VF
Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Caen 2-1 La Roche VF.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Caen, 26% draw, 36% La Roche VF — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Caen 1.65, La Roche VF 1.58.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Ligue 3 predictions
Model insights: Caen vs La Roche VF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Caen at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Caen vs La Roche VF
Caen
- L2-3away to Fleury 913 October 2026
- W3-2Rouen24 September 2026
- L0-2away to Concarneau19 September 2026
- W2-0Gobelins12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Bourg-en-bresse 015 September 2026
La Roche VF
- W3-1Aubagne3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos26 September 2026
- W3-2Valenciennes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Villefranche12 September 2026
- D1-1Quevilly5 September 2026
What these results say
- Caen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- La Roche VF went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- La Roche VF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- La Roche VF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Caen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 15 |
| 1 | La Roche VF | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Caen vs La Roche VF
- 15 October 2026Caen 1–1 La Roche VFLigue 3
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Caen carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.33 for La Roche VF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Caen and 1.58 for La Roche VF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Caen rate 0.59 in attack and 2.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; La Roche VF rate 0.61 and 1.72.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour La Roche VF, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Caen a 1.9% chance of the title and La Roche VF 22.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Caen the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Caen against 1.58 for La Roche VF. Caen's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.72 for La Roche VF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.