Thionville Lusitanos
vs
Versailles
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Thionville Lusitanos 2–1 Versailles
The model makes it 41% Thionville Lusitanos, 25% draw, 34% Versailles — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Thionville Lusitanos 1.84, Versailles 1.65.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Thionville Lusitanos are 9th on 12 points from 9 games; Versailles are 4th on 16 points from 9 games — Ligue 3.
- Thionville Lusitanos have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Le Puy Foot.
- Versailles are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Valenciennes.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Thionville Lusitanos vs Versailles
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Thionville Lusitanos at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Thionville Lusitanos vs Versailles
Thionville Lusitanos
- L0-1away to Le Puy Foot3 October 2026
- L1-2La Roche VF26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fleury 9119 September 2026
- L0-4Rouen12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Concarneau5 September 2026
Versailles
- W1-0Valenciennes3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Villefranche26 September 2026
- D0-0Quevilly19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Orleans12 September 2026
- L0-3Cannes5 September 2026
What these results say
- Thionville Lusitanos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Thionville Lusitanos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Thionville Lusitanos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 12 |
| 4 | Versailles | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Thionville Lusitanos
Chance to finish in the top four · 7% today
Versailles
Chance to finish in the top four · 34% today
From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Thionville Lusitanos carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.24 for Versailles. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Thionville Lusitanos and 1.65 for Versailles. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Thionville Lusitanos rate 0.57 in attack and 2.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Versailles rate 0.58 and 1.98.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Versailles, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Thionville Lusitanos a 0.5% chance of the title and Versailles 6.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Thionville Lusitanos the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Thionville Lusitanos against 1.65 for Versailles. Thionville Lusitanos's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.98 for Versailles.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Thionville Lusitanos at home · Versailles away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Thionville Lusitanos 9, Versailles 9.
Thionville Lusitanos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Versailles have let in 4 there.
Versailles score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Thionville Lusitanos have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Thionville Lusitanos
- at Amiens29 Oct · Ligue 3win 24%
- vs Cannes7 Nov · Ligue 3win 28%
- at Orleans21 Nov · Ligue 3win 30%
- vs Quevilly5 Dec · Ligue 3win 48%
- at Villefranche12 Dec · Ligue 3win 43%
Versailles
- vs Aubagne31 Oct · Ligue 3win 59%
- at Caen7 Nov · Ligue 3win 31%
- vs Bourg-en-bresse 0121 Nov · Ligue 3win 65%
- at Gobelins5 Dec · Ligue 3win 42%
- vs Concarneau12 Dec · Ligue 3win 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.