Muğlaspor
vs
Bursaspor
1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Muğlaspor 0-3 Bursaspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Muğlaspor, 28% draw, 47% Bursaspor — fair odds of 4.00, 3.57 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Muğlaspor 0.96, Bursaspor 1.50.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Model insights: Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bursaspor at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 17E. KılıçarslanG
- 15O. NahırcıD
- 44L. Del PinoD
- 53Alihan KazmazD
- 28A. EnginM
- 21J. ÇelhakaM
- 23A. GünerenM
- 5O. MaturM
- 11M. DiarraF
- 99Y. UzunogluF
- 13K. OsundinaF
- 10D. AvramovskiM
- 3A. BarakD
- 20B. BulutM
- 7D. CamajF
- 22B. CeylanD
- 91İ. FuratF
- 35Batıhan HanoğluG
- 27I. SissokoF
- 48O. SolM
- 98K. MatisliG
- 77R. BerişbekD
- 4E. ErsoyD
- 5Emirhan BaşyiğitD
- 93B. GökD
- 7H. AkbunarM
- 34E. AkcanM
- 6J. ElitimM
- 73A. BoutrahM
- 10LincolnF
- 14K. ỊheanachọF
- 80I. ŠaranićF
- 57B. YayıkcıD
- 18Z. YavruD
- 66H. MaldarD
- 39A. KıvançG
- 9E. GültekinF
- 20B. BaşyiğitF
- 27T. BayramovD
- 42L. BakerM
Form going into Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor
Muğlaspor
- D1-1away to Fatih Karagümrük11 October 2026
- D2-2Iğdır FK18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sivasspor13 September 2026
- D2-2Vanspor FK6 September 2026
Bursaspor
- L1-2Mardin 196911 October 2026
- W2-1away to Batman Petrolspor19 September 2026
- D2-2Esenler Erokspor13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Manisa F.K.7 September 2026
What these results say
- Muğlaspor went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Muğlaspor did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Muğlaspor scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Bursaspor scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Bursaspor conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Bursaspor had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Muğlaspor | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 |
| 3 | Bursaspor | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor
- 24 September 2019Muğlaspor 1–3 BursasporTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Muğlaspor and Bursaspor
Muğlaspor
GoalsAssists
- Y. Uzunoglu41
Bursaspor
GoalsAssists
- K. Ịheanachọ122
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 0.96 goals for Muğlaspor and 1.50 for Bursaspor; the game produced 0 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Kelechi Iheanacho 58' (Bursaspor), Kelechi Iheanacho 79' (Bursaspor), Hüseyin Maldar 83' (Bursaspor).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bursaspor the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Muğlaspor against 1.50 for Bursaspor. Muğlaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.25 for Bursaspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.