Al-Faisaly FC
vs
Al Kholood
Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Faisaly FC 3-2 Al Kholood.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Al-Faisaly FC, 26% draw, 32% Al Kholood — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Faisaly FC 1.74, Al Kholood 1.47.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Model insights: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Faisaly FC at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Fernando PachecoG
- 2Yaseen BarnawiD
- 4A. SeckD
- 5Andrei GirottoD
- 50Mohammed Ali Al ShanqitiD
- 8FlávioM
- 6Eid Al MuwalladM
- 20Jaime SeoaneM
- 10T. BongondaF
- 19Alexandre MendyF
- 24Abdulaziz Al BishiF
- 3Khalid Al HarbiD
- 26Mohammed Al HasawiG
- 47Faisal Mohammed Ibrahim Al FahadF
- 14Abdullah AlmuqrinF
- 77A. Al ShereafM
- 88Saud HaddadD
- 70Mohammed JahfaliD
- 13C. BassogogF
- 87A. BaD
- 48Muhannad Al YahyaG
- 15Ramzi SolanD
- 8S. CisséD
- 25Mansour CamaraD
- 38S. PinasD
- 26Yaseen Al ZubaidiM
- 39Abdulrahman Al DosariM
- 6J. BuckleyM
- 11CobaM
- 10Iker KortajarenaF
- 22J. DominguesF
- 24O. AbdulghaniD
- 27Abdullah Al AjyanF
- 47Abdulrahman Al ObaidD
- 7Sultan Al ShehriD
- 67Mohammed Al RashidiM
- 70Muhammad SawanM
- 30Mohammed Mazyad AlshammariG
- 41Ibrahem BarabaaM
- 77A. EssombaF
Form going into Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood
Al-Faisaly FC
- L1-3Al-Ittihad11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Ettifaq8 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Hazm5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC30 August 2026
Al Kholood
- L0-5Al-Qadisiyah FC9 October 2026
- L0-2away to Al Riyadh13 September 2026
- W2-1Al Shabab9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Fayha3 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Faisaly FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Al Kholood conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al Kholood failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Al Kholood had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 |
| 8 | Al Kholood | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood
- 29 March 2024Al-Faisaly FC 0–3 Al KholoodDivision 1
- 8 November 2023Al Kholood 1–0 Al-Faisaly FCDivision 1
- 12 March 2023Al-Faisaly FC 1–1 Al KholoodDivision 1
- 18 October 2022Al Kholood 0–1 Al-Faisaly FCDivision 1
Leading scorers: Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood
Al-Faisaly FC
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Al Kholood
GoalsAssists
- Iker Kortajarena41
- J. Domingues32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.74 goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.47 for Al Kholood; the game produced 3 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Alexandre Mendy 7' (Al-Faisaly FC), Shaquille Pinas 19' (Al Kholood), Julien Domingues 45' (Al Kholood), Alexandre Mendy 45' (Al-Faisaly FC), Alexandre Mendy 85' (Al-Faisaly FC).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Faisaly FC the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC against 1.47 for Al Kholood. Al-Faisaly FC's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.66 for Al Kholood.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.