Al-Hazm
vs
Al-Fateh
Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Hazm 2-3 Al-Fateh.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Al-Hazm, 27% draw, 31% Al-Fateh — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Hazm 1.54, Al-Fateh 1.24.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Model insights: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Hazm at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 36J. StaněkG
- 4Sultan TankerD
- 17Bonheur MugishaD
- 34Abdulrahman Al-DakheelD
- 82Abdulaziz Al-HarbiM
- 24A. BahM
- 28S. BendebkaM
- 27Ahmed Al NakhliM
- 22Abdul Aziz Sulaiman Al DhuwayhiF
- 10A. SayoudF
- 70Ahmed Al ShamraniF
- 23Ibrahim ZaidG
- 13Abdullah Al ShanqitiD
- 77M. Al HamdaniF
- 11Waleed Al ShanqitiF
- 5Mohammed IssaD
- 95Jaser AteeqD
- 3A. Ben HmidaD
- 29Aboubacar DiakiteF
- 8M. KonatéM
- 1A. ŠemperG
- 3K. BoatengD
- 17M. SaâdaneD
- 78Abdulaziz Al SuwailemD
- 87Sattam Al TumbuktiM
- 6Ali Al HassanM
- 28Z. YoussoufM
- 16Abdulelah Al KhaibariM
- 11M. BatnaF
- 9W. KangaF
- 10L. HaraslínF
- 94Waleed Al AnziG
- 18Abdulaziz Al FawazM
- 7Fahad Al ZubaidiF
- 88Othman Al-OthmaM
- 49Saad Al SharfaF
- 19R. KelderD
- 8M. LixandruM
- 80Faisal Al AbdulwahedM
- 22Abdul Rahman Al KhaibariD
Form going into Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh
Al-Hazm
- D1-1NEOM10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Al-Ahli Jeddah11 September 2026
- W1-0Al Taawon8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Faisaly FC5 September 2026
Al-Fateh
- L0-4Al-Ahli Jeddah9 October 2026
- L2-4away to NEOM13 September 2026
- L1-2Al Diriyah9 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Taawon5 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Hazm failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Hazm scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Al-Hazm had two goals or fewer.
- Al-Fateh did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Al-Fateh conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Al-Fateh had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al-Hazm | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh
- 1 February 2026Al-Fateh 1–1 Al-HazmPro League
- 20 September 2025Al-Hazm 0–0 Al-FatehPro League
- 23 May 2024Al-Fateh 2–1 Al-HazmPro League
- 7 December 2023Al-Hazm 2–0 Al-FatehPro League
- 18 February 2022Al-Hazm 0–1 Al-FatehPro League
- 25 September 2021Al-Fateh 0–1 Al-HazmPro League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.54 goals for Al-Hazm and 1.24 for Al-Fateh; the game produced 2 and 3.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Sofiane Bendebka 17' (Al-Hazm), Wilfried Kanga 27' (Al-Fateh), Abdulaziz Al-Dwehe 49' (Al-Hazm), Faisal Abdulwahed 88' (Al-Fateh), Mourad Batna 90' (Al-Fateh).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Hazm the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Hazm against 1.24 for Al-Fateh. Al-Hazm's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.49 for Al-Fateh.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.