Durban City
vs
Amazulu
Premier Soccer League prediction & result
Final score: Durban City 1-2 Amazulu.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Durban City, 34% draw, 36% Amazulu — fair odds of 3.33, 2.94 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Durban City 0.85, Amazulu 0.97.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 27%, under 2.5: 73%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More South African Premier Soccer League predictions
Model insights: Durban City vs Amazulu
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Amazulu at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Durban City vs Amazulu
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33F. AsareG
- 2B. ShanduD
- 5S. NcananaD
- 30M. MkhizeD
- 24J. MokoneD
- 17K. JurgensM
- 18B. PoggenpoelM
- 10S. MasekoM
- 28E. BrooksM
- 35L. SifumbaM
- 20Jean LwambaF
- 7H. DomingoM
- 29Alou DoumbiaM
- 4F. GcabaD
- 14L. KoapengF
- 1Salim MagoolaG
- 16L. MakuaM
- 27Siyabonga MsomiF
- 26T. NodadaM
- 23Tylo SangerD
- 1O. MzimelaG
- 42S. MthethwaD
- 5K. AllanD
- 12T. FieliesD
- 3O. MdakaD
- 14N. RadebeM
- 6S. HlangabezaM
- 10S. MadunaM
- 15M. MbanjwaM
- 2A. MaqokolaF
- 23Thandolwenkosi NgwenyaF
- 22B. ThabedeF
- 11A. SitholeM
- 33K. PhillipsD
- 50L. MhlongoM
- 20T. MashigoM
- 24W. KouassiG
- 27H. EksteinM
- 17L. BernD
- 19Sphamandla ZikhaliM
Form going into Durban City vs Amazulu
Durban City
- D1-1away to Milford FC20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Orlando Pirates17 September 2026
- D0-0Stellenbosch1 September 2026
- W2-0away to Kruger United25 August 2026
Amazulu
- W1-0away to Polokwane City19 September 2026
- W1-0Marumo Gallants12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Richards Bay4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Mamelodi Sundowns26 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Durban City had two goals or fewer.
- Durban City failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Amazulu scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Amazulu won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Durban City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| 3 | Amazulu | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Durban City vs Amazulu
- 23 May 2026Durban City 0–1 AmazuluPremier Soccer League
- 18 October 2025Amazulu 1–0 Durban CityPremier Soccer League
Leading scorers: Durban City and Amazulu
Durban City
No player in Premier Soccer League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Amazulu
GoalsAssists
- T. Ngwenya81
- M. Mbanjwa20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 0.85 goals for Durban City and 0.97 for Amazulu; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Mondli Mbanjwa 7' (Amazulu), A. Maqokola 45' (Amazulu), Domingo 72' (Durban City).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amazulu the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Durban City against 0.97 for Amazulu. Durban City's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.5 for Amazulu.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.