Richards Bay
vs
Mamelodi Sundowns
Premier Soccer League prediction & result
Final score: Richards Bay 1-4 Mamelodi Sundowns.
Before kick-off the model made it 18% Richards Bay, 22% draw, 60% Mamelodi Sundowns — fair odds of 5.56, 4.55 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Richards Bay 1.06, Mamelodi Sundowns 2.32.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More South African Premier Soccer League predictions
Model insights: Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mamelodi Sundowns at 60% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ian Aubrey OtienoG
- 22L. MabuyaD
- 25S. McinekaD
- 49Nkosiyethu MkhabelaD
- 37S. GweleD
- 77L. KhumaloM
- 24Siyabonga GumedeM
- 12S. GumbiM
- 20M. MthembuF
- 27N. XuluF
- 19S. NzamaF
- 5T. SikhakhaneD
- 31O. MbamboF
- 14L. MahalaF
- 3S. KhumaloD
- 6Khayelihle MncubeM
- 35T. NdeluD
- 16Nhlakanipho NgcoboG
- 33W. NgemaM
- 26Wandile NgidiF
- 30R. WilliamsG
- 22T. MatuludiD
- 42Malibongwe KhozaD
- 3K. NdamaneD
- 23F. BasadienD
- 4T. MokoenaM
- 11M. AllendeM
- 38S. MthantiM
- 33C. MailulaM
- 17T. MatthewsM
- 13I. RaynersF
- 31R. GossG
- 12B. LeónF
- 5D. LungaD
- 27T. MorenaD
- 40M. MvalaD
- 10Nuno SantosM
- 29A. Van WykF
- 19T. CeleM
- 18T. ZwaneM
Form going into Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Richards Bay
- L2-3Sekhukhune United19 September 2026
- L1-5away to Milford FC13 September 2026
- L1-2Amazulu4 September 2026
- D2-2Kaizer Chiefs26 August 2026
Mamelodi Sundowns
- D1-1away to Chippa United12 September 2026
- W3-0Siwelele9 September 2026
- W2-1away to Golden Arrows6 September 2026
- W2-0Milford FC2 September 2026
What these results say
- Richards Bay did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Richards Bay scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Richards Bay conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Mamelodi Sundowns went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Mamelodi Sundowns scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Mamelodi Sundowns won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Richards Bay | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 3 |
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns
- 26 April 2026Richards Bay 0–0 Mamelodi SundownsPremier Soccer League
- 27 September 2025Mamelodi Sundowns 4–1 Richards BayPremier Soccer League
- 3 August 2025Mamelodi Sundowns 4–0 Richards Bay8 Cup
- 30 April 2025Mamelodi Sundowns 3–0 Richards BayPremier Soccer League
- 28 December 2024Richards Bay 0–2 Mamelodi SundownsPremier Soccer League
- 2 April 2024Mamelodi Sundowns 1–0 Richards BayPremier Soccer League
Leading scorers: Richards Bay and Mamelodi Sundowns
Richards Bay
GoalsAssists
- N. Xulu50
Mamelodi Sundowns
GoalsAssists
- T. Matthews34
- B. León31
- I. Rayners30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.06 goals for Richards Bay and 2.32 for Mamelodi Sundowns; the game produced 1 and 4.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Tashreeq Matthews 18' (Mamelodi Sundowns), Lwandile Sandile Mabuya 22' (Richards Bay), Iqraam Rayners 37' (Mamelodi Sundowns), Iqraam Rayners 48' (Mamelodi Sundowns), Fawaaz basadien 59' (Mamelodi Sundowns).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mamelodi Sundowns the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Richards Bay against 2.32 for Mamelodi Sundowns. Richards Bay's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/1.49 for Mamelodi Sundowns.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.