Sekhukhune United
vs
Marumo Gallants
Premier Soccer League prediction
Our model says: Sekhukhune United 1–0 Marumo Gallants
The model makes it 51% Sekhukhune United, 29% draw, 20% Marumo Gallants — fair odds of 1.96, 3.45 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Sekhukhune United 1.44, Marumo Gallants 0.70.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Sekhukhune United: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sekhukhune United are 6th on 11 points from 7 games; Marumo Gallants are bottom on 2 points from 7 games — Premier Soccer League.
- Sekhukhune United are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Richards Bay.
- Marumo Gallants have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Orlando Pirates.
- Last 6 meetings: Sekhukhune United 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Sekhukhune United 1–1 Marumo Gallants.
More South African Premier Soccer League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sekhukhune United vs Marumo Gallants
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sekhukhune United at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sekhukhune United vs Marumo Gallants
Sekhukhune United
- W3-2away to Richards Bay19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Stellenbosch11 September 2026
- D0-0TS Galaxy5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Orlando Pirates25 August 2026
- W2-0Polokwane City15 August 2026
Marumo Gallants
- L0-2Orlando Pirates20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Amazulu12 September 2026
- D2-2Polokwane City4 September 2026
- L2-3TS Galaxy25 August 2026
- L0-2away to Mamelodi Sundowns19 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sekhukhune United had two goals or fewer.
- Marumo Gallants did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Marumo Gallants conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sekhukhune United | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 16 | Marumo Gallants | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sekhukhune United
Chance to finish in the top four · 18% today
Marumo Gallants
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 69% today
From our Premier Soccer League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sekhukhune United vs Marumo Gallants
- 25 April 2026Sekhukhune United 1–1 Marumo GallantsPremier Soccer League
- 22 November 2025Marumo Gallants 1–1 Sekhukhune UnitedPremier Soccer League
- 12 March 2025Marumo Gallants 1–2 Sekhukhune UnitedPremier Soccer League
- 28 December 2024Sekhukhune United 1–0 Marumo GallantsPremier Soccer League
- 4 February 2023Marumo Gallants 2–0 Sekhukhune UnitedPremier Soccer League
- 3 January 2023Sekhukhune United 3–2 Marumo GallantsPremier Soccer League
The two sides
Sekhukhune United carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.1 for Marumo Gallants. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Sekhukhune United and 0.70 for Marumo Gallants. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sekhukhune United rate 0.59 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Marumo Gallants rate 0.45 and 2.03.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sekhukhune United the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Sekhukhune United against 0.70 for Marumo Gallants. Sekhukhune United's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/2.03 for Marumo Gallants.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sekhukhune United at home · Marumo Gallants away
League matches only, Premier Soccer League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Soccer League matches this season: Sekhukhune United 7, Marumo Gallants 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sekhukhune United
- at Milford FC1 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 26%
- at Chippa United4 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 34%
- vs Siwelele29 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 45%
- vs Amazulu5 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 34%
- at Mamelodi Sundowns15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 17%
Marumo Gallants
- vs Siwelele30 Oct · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 33%
- at Golden Arrows4 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 19%
- vs Richards Bay29 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 38%
- vs Chippa United4 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 34%
- at Durban City15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.