Orlando Pirates
vs
TS Galaxy
Premier Soccer League prediction & result
Final score: Orlando Pirates 3-0 TS Galaxy.
Before kick-off the model made it 76% Orlando Pirates, 17% draw, 7% TS Galaxy — fair odds of 1.32, 5.88 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Orlando Pirates 2.46, TS Galaxy 0.45.
Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More South African Premier Soccer League predictions
Model insights: Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orlando Pirates at 76% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24S. ChaineG
- 2B. SigomosheD
- 6L. SeemaD
- 5N. SibisiD
- 3N. NdabaD
- 20S. SelepeM
- 33T. MokobodiM
- 23G. LunguM
- 48S. MasilelaM
- 12O. AppollisM
- 25B. RadiopaneF
- 17E. MakgopaF
- 11T. MoremiF
- 46C. DansinF
- 32S. DladlaG
- 49K. KgosietsileM
- 29M. MthiyaneM
- 38Mpho PadimeF
- 19N. RapooD
- 37S. ZuluD
- 16I. TapéG
- 24Lennol MathebulaD
- 25K. MhlongoD
- 3M. MncwangoD
- 8M. MbunjanaM
- 13S. XuluM
- 14Tshepo KakoraM
- 2M. MvelaseM
- 21Junior ZindogaM
- 17V. LetsoaloF
- 19S. GeorgeF
- 29Thulani ZandamelaM
- 23P. FisherD
- 7Seluleko MahlambiF
- 4M. MahlanguD
- 1Sipho Gift MasetiG
- 33S. NgobeniD
- 6N. NkosiM
- 15M. RantoaF
- 11Anslin WilliamsM
Form going into Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy
Orlando Pirates
- W2-0away to Marumo Gallants20 September 2026
- W2-0Durban City17 September 2026
- W4-0away to Kruger United1 September 2026
- W2-0Sekhukhune United25 August 2026
TS Galaxy
- L0-1Chippa United20 September 2026
- L0-1Kruger United13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sekhukhune United5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Marumo Gallants25 August 2026
What these results say
- Orlando Pirates won every one of these 4 matches.
- Orlando Pirates scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Orlando Pirates kept a clean sheet in every one of these 4 matches.
- TS Galaxy failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- TS Galaxy failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- TS Galaxy conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 1 | +18 | 22 |
| 12 | TS Galaxy | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy
- 22 March 2026TS Galaxy 0–6 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
- 30 September 2025Orlando Pirates 2–0 TS GalaxyPremier Soccer League
- 17 May 2025Orlando Pirates 1–1 TS GalaxyPremier Soccer League
- 29 October 2024TS Galaxy 0–2 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
- 18 May 2024TS Galaxy 1–0 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
- 9 December 2023Orlando Pirates 1–0 TS GalaxyPremier Soccer League
Leading scorers: Orlando Pirates and TS Galaxy
Orlando Pirates
GoalsAssists
- T. Moremi40
- B. Radiopane31
- O. Appollis23
TS Galaxy
GoalsAssists
- V. Letsoalo40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.46 goals for Orlando Pirates and 0.45 for TS Galaxy; the game produced 3 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Boitumelo Lawrence Radiopane 18' (Orlando Pirates), Tshepang Moremi 50' (Orlando Pirates), Simphiwe Masilela 76' (Orlando Pirates).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orlando Pirates the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Orlando Pirates against 0.45 for TS Galaxy. Orlando Pirates's attack/defence rating is 1.03/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.98 for TS Galaxy.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.