Ascoli
vs
Empoli
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Ascoli 1–0 Empoli
The model makes it 52% Ascoli, 28% draw, 20% Empoli — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Ascoli 1.58, Empoli 0.78.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Ascoli: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ascoli are 5th on 11 points from 6 games; Empoli are 13th on 6 points from 6 games — Serie B.
- Ascoli have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Sudtirol.
- Empoli are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Palermo.
- Last 6 meetings: Empoli 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 May 2021, ended Ascoli 2–0 Empoli.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ascoli vs Empoli
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ascoli at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ascoli vs Empoli
Ascoli
- D0-0away to Sudtirol10 October 2026
- W3-1Avellino19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Padova12 September 2026
- W1-0Benevento5 September 2026
- D1-1Carrarese29 August 2026
Empoli
- L2-4Palermo10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Modena20 September 2026
- L0-1Arezzo11 September 2026
- W1-0away to Carrarese5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Mantova30 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ascoli had two goals or fewer.
- Empoli failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Empoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Empoli conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ascoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 |
| 13 | Empoli | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ascoli
Chance to finish in the top four · 45% today
Empoli
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 25% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Ascoli vs Empoli
- 1 May 2021Ascoli 2–0 EmpoliSerie B
- 30 December 2020Empoli 1–1 AscoliSerie B
- 13 July 2020Ascoli 1–0 EmpoliSerie B
- 7 December 2019Empoli 2–1 AscoliSerie B
- 10 February 2018Ascoli 1–2 EmpoliSerie B
- 16 September 2017Empoli 3–0 AscoliSerie B
Leading scorers: Ascoli and Empoli
Ascoli
GoalsAssists
- A. Silipo30
Empoli
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ascoli carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.43 for Empoli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Ascoli and 0.78 for Empoli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ascoli rate 0.69 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Empoli rate 0.66 and 1.53.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ascoli a 10.4% chance of the title and Empoli 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ascoli the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Ascoli against 0.78 for Empoli. Ascoli's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.53 for Empoli.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ascoli at home · Empoli away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Ascoli 6, Empoli 6.
Ascoli score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Empoli have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ascoli
- at Catanzaro24 Oct · Serie Bwin 35%
- vs Sampdoria27 Oct · Serie Bwin 54%
- at Arezzo1 Nov · Serie Bwin 45%
- vs Palermo6 Nov · Serie Bwin 38%
- vs Vicenza Virtus21 Nov · Serie Bwin 58%
Empoli
- vs Vicenza Virtus23 Oct · Serie Bwin 48%
- at Cesena27 Oct · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Juve Stabia1 Nov · Serie Bwin 38%
- at Padova7 Nov · Serie Bwin 29%
- vs Pisa21 Nov · Serie Bwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.