Mantova
vs
Palermo
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Mantova 2–1 Palermo
The model makes it 38% Mantova, 26% draw, 36% Palermo — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Mantova 1.54, Palermo 1.49.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Mantova and Palermo are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Mantova are 2nd on 14 points from 6 games; Palermo are top on 16 points from 6 games — Serie B.
- Mantova are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Catanzaro.
- Palermo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-2 win away to Empoli.
- Last 5 meetings: Palermo 2 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 3 September 2026, ended Palermo 5–2 Mantova.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mantova vs Palermo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mantova at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mantova vs Palermo
Mantova
- W3-1away to Catanzaro11 October 2026
- D2-2Pisa20 September 2026
- W2-0Sampdoria13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cesena6 September 2026
- W3-1Empoli30 August 2026
Palermo
- W4-2away to Empoli10 October 2026
- W2-1Padova19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Avellino13 September 2026
- W3-1Sampdoria7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Arezzo30 August 2026
What these results say
- Mantova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Mantova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mantova conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palermo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Palermo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Palermo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mantova | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 14 |
| 1 | Palermo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Mantova
Chance to finish in the top four · 44% today
Palermo
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 37% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Mantova vs Palermo
- 3 September 2026Palermo 5–2 MantovaCoppa Italia
- 4 March 2026Palermo 2–1 MantovaSerie B
- 11 January 2026Mantova 1–1 PalermoSerie B
- 16 February 2025Palermo 2–2 MantovaSerie B
- 30 October 2024Mantova 0–0 PalermoSerie B
Leading scorers: Mantova and Palermo
Mantova
GoalsAssists
- F. Ruocco50
- V. Vlahović21
Palermo
GoalsAssists
- D. Johnsen45
- J. Pohjanpalo22
- A. Palumbo21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mantova carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.73 for Palermo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Mantova and 1.49 for Palermo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mantova rate 0.85 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Palermo rate 0.94 and 1.21.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Palermo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mantova a 10.3% chance of the title and Palermo 37.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mantova the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Mantova against 1.49 for Palermo. Mantova's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.21 for Palermo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mantova at home · Palermo away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MantovaPalermo
Mantova are 2nd after 6 Serie B matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Palermo are 1st after 6 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Mantova 6, Palermo 6.
Palermo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Mantova have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Mantova
- at Virtus Entella24 Oct · Serie Bwin 36%
- vs Cremonese27 Oct · Serie Bwin 39%
- at Modena31 Oct · Serie Bwin 28%
- vs Hellas Verona7 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
- at Avellino21 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
Palermo
- vs Carrarese25 Oct · Serie Bwin 55%
- at Pisa28 Oct · Serie Bwin 35%
- vs Vicenza Virtus1 Nov · Serie Bwin 66%
- at Ascoli6 Nov · Serie Bwin 32%
- at Catanzaro21 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.