Qabala
vs
Sabah FA
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Qabala 0–2 Sabah FA
The model makes it 12% Qabala, 21% draw, 67% Sabah FA — fair odds of 8.33, 4.76 and 1.49. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (13%).
Expected goals: Qabala 0.73, Sabah FA 2.30.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Sabah FA are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Qabala are 9th on 4 points from 7 games; Sabah FA are 2nd on 16 points from 6 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Qabala are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Sumqayıt.
- Sabah FA are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Neftchi Baku.
- Last 6 meetings: Sabah FA 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 March 2026, ended Sabah FA 7–1 Qabala.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Qabala vs Sabah FA
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sabah FA at 67% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Qabala vs Sabah FA
Qabala
- L1-4away to Sumqayıt10 October 2026
- L0-3Neftchi Baku18 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kapaz12 September 2026
- W2-1Imisli FK4 September 2026
- D0-0Şamaxı FK29 August 2026
Sabah FA
- D0-0away to Neftchi Baku9 October 2026
- W3-1Imisli FK19 September 2026
- W3-0away to Safa Baku14 September 2026
- W5-0Zira5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Araz31 August 2026
What these results say
- Qabala failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Qabala conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sabah FA went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sabah FA won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sabah FA scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Qabala | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4 |
| 2 | Sabah FA | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Qabala
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 64% today
Sabah FA
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 56% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Qabala vs Sabah FA
- 10 March 2026Sabah FA 7–1 QabalaPremyer Liqa
- 5 March 2026Qabala 2–2 Sabah FACup
- 16 February 2026Qabala 0–1 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 4 February 2026Sabah FA 0–0 QabalaCup
- 3 November 2025Sabah FA 1–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
- 12 May 2024Qabala 2–0 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
A clear gap in the ratings
Qabala carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.87 for Sabah FA. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.73 goals for Qabala and 2.30 for Sabah FA. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Qabala rate 0.46 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sabah FA rate 1.01 and 0.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Qabala a 0% chance of the title and Sabah FA 55.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabah FA the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Qabala against 2.30 for Sabah FA. Qabala's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/0.97 for Sabah FA.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Qabala at home · Sabah FA away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Qabala 7, Sabah FA 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Qabala
- at Araz23 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 28%
- vs Qarabag31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 16%
- at Zira7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 17%
- at Safa Baku21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 32%
- at Şamaxı FK28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 20%
Sabah FA
- vs Borussia Dortmund20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 28%
- vs Qarabag25 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 51%
- at Turan31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 47%
- at Viking4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 24%
- vs Şamaxı FK7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 71%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.