Imisli FK
vs
Turan
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Imisli FK 0–1 Turan
The model makes it 26% Imisli FK, 31% draw, 43% Turan — fair odds of 3.85, 3.23 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Imisli FK 0.85, Turan 1.25.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Turan are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Imisli FK are 10th on 4 points from 7 games; Turan are 4th on 14 points from 7 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Imisli FK are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Qarabag.
- Turan are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Safa Baku.
- Last 6 meetings: Turan 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 7 April 2026, ended Imisli FK 1–1 Turan.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Imisli FK vs Turan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Turan at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Imisli FK vs Turan
Imisli FK
- L0-2Qarabag11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sabah FA19 September 2026
- L2-3Neftchi Baku11 September 2026
- L1-2away to Qabala4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Safa Baku29 August 2026
Turan
- W1-0away to Safa Baku11 October 2026
- W1-0Zira19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Araz13 September 2026
- W2-1Sumqayıt6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kapaz30 August 2026
What these results say
- Imisli FK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Imisli FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Imisli FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Turan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Imisli FK | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 4 | Turan | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Imisli FK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 53% today
Turan
Chance to finish in the top four · 43% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Imisli FK vs Turan
- 7 April 2026Imisli FK 1–1 TuranPremyer Liqa
- 1 March 2026Turan 0–0 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
- 16 August 2025Imisli FK 0–1 TuranPremyer Liqa
- 30 March 2018Turan 1–0 Imisli FKBirinci Dasta
- 4 December 2017Imisli FK 1–1 TuranBirinci Dasta
- 16 October 2017Turan 1–1 Imisli FKBirinci Dasta
The two sides
Imisli FK carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.5 for Turan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.85 goals for Imisli FK and 1.25 for Turan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Imisli FK rate 0.43 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Turan rate 0.58 and 1.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Imisli FK a 0% chance of the title and Turan 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Turan the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Imisli FK against 1.25 for Turan. Imisli FK's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.21 for Turan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Imisli FK at home · Turan away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Imisli FK 7, Turan 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Imisli FK
- vs Şamaxı FK25 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 32%
- at Kapaz31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 25%
- vs Sumqayıt7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 34%
- vs Zira21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 29%
- vs Safa Baku28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 44%
Turan
- at Neftchi Baku24 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 20%
- vs Sabah FA31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 24%
- at Qarabag7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 17%
- at Şamaxı FK21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 34%
- vs Kapaz28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.