Al-Fateh
vs
Al Khaleej Saihat
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Fateh 1–0 Al Khaleej Saihat
The model makes it 37% Al-Fateh, 28% draw, 35% Al Khaleej Saihat — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al-Fateh 1.37, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.32.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Fateh are 16th on 6 points from 9 games; Al Khaleej Saihat are 11th on 9 points from 9 games — Pro League.
- Al-Fateh have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Al-Hazm.
- Al Khaleej Saihat are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Al-Fayha.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Fateh 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 April 2026, ended Al-Fateh 1–0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Fateh at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat
Al-Fateh
- W3-2away to Al-Hazm15 October 2026
- L0-4Al-Ahli Jeddah9 October 2026
- L2-4away to NEOM13 September 2026
- L1-2Al Diriyah9 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Taawon5 September 2026
Al Khaleej Saihat
- W2-0Al-Fayha15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Ettifaq10 October 2026
- D1-1Al-Nassr12 September 2026
- D0-0Al Riyadh7 September 2026
- L0-3away to NEOM3 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Fateh failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fateh conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Fateh had three goals or more.
- Al Khaleej Saihat failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Khaleej Saihat had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Fateh
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 40% today
Al Khaleej Saihat
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat
- 24 April 2026Al-Fateh 1–0 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 29 December 2025Al Khaleej Saihat 0–1 Al-FatehPro League
- 12 April 2025Al Khaleej Saihat 1–5 Al-FatehPro League
- 9 November 2024Al-Fateh 1–2 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 9 March 2024Al-Fateh 1–2 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 15 September 2023Al Khaleej Saihat 1–3 Al-FatehPro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al-Fateh carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.42 for Al Khaleej Saihat. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Al-Fateh and 1.32 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Fateh rate 0.59 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Khaleej Saihat rate 0.60 and 1.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al Khaleej Saihat, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Fateh the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al-Fateh against 1.32 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Al-Fateh's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.42 for Al Khaleej Saihat.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Fateh at home · Al Khaleej Saihat away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Fateh 9, Al Khaleej Saihat 9.
Al Khaleej Saihat score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Al-Fateh have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Fateh
- vs Al Shabab22 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 34%
- at Al-Hilal31 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 8%
- vs Al Riyadh5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 41%
- at Al-Fayha20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 32%
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 11%
Al Khaleej Saihat
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah22 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 13%
- vs Al-Hazm29 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- at Al Kholood5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 35%
- vs Al-Ittihad20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 27%
- at Al-Faisaly FC26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.