Azerbaijan Premier League predictions

Friday 16 October — 2 matches

• 11:00 UTC Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku — model 55% / 28% / 17%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.82 · 3.57 · 5.88. Edge: Şamaxı FK
• 15:00 UTC Sumqayıt vs Araz — model 56% / 22% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.79 · 4.55 · 4.55. Edge: Sumqayıt

Saturday 17 October — 2 matches

• 12:00 UTC Qabala vs Sabah FA — model 12% / 21% / 67%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 8.33 · 4.76 · 1.49. One-sided: Sabah FA
• 15:00 UTC Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku — model 50% / 24% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.00 · 4.17 · 3.85. Evenly matched

Sunday 18 October — 2 matches

• 11:00 UTC Imisli FK vs Turan — model 26% / 31% / 43%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.85 · 3.23 · 2.33. One-sided: Turan
• 14:30 UTC Kapaz vs Zira — model 32% / 29% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.45 · 2.56. Edge: Zira

Friday 23 October — 2 matches

• 11:00 UTC Araz vs Qabala — model 46% / 26% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 3.85 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 15:00 UTC Zira vs Sumqayıt — model 51% / 25% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.96 · 4.00 · 4.17. Evenly matched

Saturday 24 October — 2 matches

• 12:30 UTC Safa Baku vs Kapaz — model 34% / 32% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.94 · 3.13 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
• 15:00 UTC Neftchi Baku vs Turan — model 55% / 25% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.82 · 4.00 · 5.00. Edge: Neftchi Baku

Sunday 25 October — 2 matches

• 11:00 UTC Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK — model 32% / 31% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.23 · 2.70. Edge: Şamaxı FK
• 14:00 UTC Sabah FA vs Qarabag — model 51% / 25% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.96 · 4.00 · 4.17. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

9–11 October: the model called the result of 3 of 6 matches, 2 of them to the exact score.

• Araz 0–2 Kapaz — the model said 48% / 26% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Neftchi Baku 0–0 Sabah FA — the model said 36% / 25% / 39%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Zira 1–1 Şamaxı FK — the model said 48% / 28% / 24%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Sumqayıt 4–1 Qabala — the model said 48% / 27% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Imisli FK 0–2 Qarabag — the model said 17% / 24% / 59%, most likely 0-2: exact scoreline.
• Safa Baku 0–1 Turan — the model said 25% / 31% / 44%, most likely 0-1: exact scoreline.