Sumqayıt vs Qabala Premyer Liqa prediction & result
Final score: Sumqayıt 4-1 Qabala.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Sumqayıt, 27% draw, 25% Qabala — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Azerbaijan Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sumqayıt at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Sumqayıt vs Qabala
Sumqayıt
- D1-1away to Kapaz20 September 2026
- D1-1Şamaxı FK12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Turan6 September 2026
- L0-1Qarabag31 August 2026
Qabala
- L0-3Neftchi Baku18 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kapaz12 September 2026
- W2-1Imisli FK4 September 2026
- D0-0Şamaxı FK29 August 2026
What these results say
- Sumqayıt did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Sumqayıt conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sumqayıt scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Qabala failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Qabala failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Qabala conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sumqayıt | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Qabala | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sumqayıt vs Qabala
- 19 April 2026Sumqayıt 1–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
- 20 February 2026Sumqayıt 0–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
- 7 November 2025Qabala 0–2 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
- 25 May 2024Sumqayıt 1–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
- 23 January 2024Qabala 0–1 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
- 29 October 2023Sumqayıt 0–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.