Safa Baku vs Turan Premyer Liqa prediction & result
Final score: Safa Baku 0-1 Turan.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Safa Baku, 31% draw, 44% Turan — fair odds of 4.00, 3.23 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Turan at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Safa Baku vs Turan
Safa Baku
- L0-1away to Qarabag18 September 2026
- L0-3Sabah FA14 September 2026
- L1-4away to Neftchi Baku5 September 2026
- L0-1Imisli FK29 August 2026
Turan
- W1-0Zira19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Araz13 September 2026
- W2-1Sumqayıt6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kapaz30 August 2026
What these results say
- Safa Baku did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Safa Baku conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Safa Baku failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Turan scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Turan conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Safa Baku | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 3 |
| 4 | Turan | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Safa Baku vs Turan
- 11 October 2026Safa Baku 0–1 TuranPremyer Liqa
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.