Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań I Liga prediction & result
Final score: Stal Mielec 2-1 Warta Poznań.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Stal Mielec, 24% draw, 44% Warta Poznań — fair odds of 3.13, 4.17 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Warta Poznań at 44% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań
Stal Mielec
- L1-7away to Lechia Gdansk19 September 2026
- L1-2Nieciecza14 September 2026
- D1-1Odra Opole5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pogoń Siedlce29 August 2026
Warta Poznań
- W3-2Puszcza Niepołomice18 September 2026
- W3-0Arka Gdynia12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Miedz Legnica30 August 2026
What these results say
- Stal Mielec did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Stal Mielec conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Stal Mielec scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Warta Poznań scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Warta Poznań conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Warta Poznań had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Stal Mielec | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 12 |
| 5 | Warta Poznań | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań
- 11 October 2026Stal Mielec 2–1 Warta PoznańI Liga
- 22 April 2024Warta Poznań 5–2 Stal MielecEkstraklasa
- 23 October 2023Stal Mielec 0–1 Warta PoznańEkstraklasa
- 27 May 2023Stal Mielec 1–0 Warta PoznańEkstraklasa
- 11 November 2022Warta Poznań 1–1 Stal MielecEkstraklasa
- 16 April 2022Stal Mielec 0–1 Warta PoznańEkstraklasa
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.