KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: KV Mechelen 4-3 St. Truiden.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% KV Mechelen, 27% draw, 44% St. Truiden — fair odds of 3.45, 3.70 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Truiden at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13N. MirasG
- 20K. CorbanieD
- 44M. EerdhuijzenD
- 3J. MarsaD
- 23S. MichezM
- 6F. HammarM
- 30M. DecherfM
- 7T. KoudouM
- 14B. RamanF
- 9M. van BrederodeF
- 28B. BoersmaF
- 1O. De WolfG
- 15T. Van IngelgomG
- 2L. MarijnissenD
- 4G. DioufD
- 10M. KireevM
- 26D. PraetM
- 29B. AntonioF
- 21H. OzdemirF
- 17C. Van MeirvenneF
- 16L. KokuboG
- 60R. VanwesemaelD
- 4K. TakaiD
- 5S. TaniguchiD
- 3T. HataD
- 14R. MerlenM
- 8A. SissakoM
- 38K. MatsuzawaM
- 71R. ArakiM
- 10I. SebaouiM
- 9S. BazdarF
- 21M. LendfersG
- 35Y. NgoyG
- 26V. MusliuD
- 23J. PupeD
- 18N. IshiwatariM
- 22W. JanssensD
- 11N. MbukuF
- 19F. SoelleF
- 99S. ShinkawaM
Form going into KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden
KV Mechelen
- D0-0away to Lommel United19 September 2026
- L0-1Anderlecht11 September 2026
- L0-4KVC Westerlo5 September 2026
- D2-2away to RAAL La Louvière29 August 2026
St. Truiden
- L0-2KVC Westerlo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to SK Beveren12 September 2026
- W4-0RAAL La Louvière5 September 2026
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise2 September 2026
What these results say
- KV Mechelen did not win any of these 4 matches.
- KV Mechelen failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- KV Mechelen conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- St. Truiden failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- St. Truiden failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- St. Truiden conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden
- 11 October 2026KV Mechelen 4–3 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 24 May 2026St. Truiden 3–0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 26 April 2026KV Mechelen 1–4 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 21 December 2025St. Truiden 1–0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 4 October 2025KV Mechelen 1–3 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 21 February 2025KV Mechelen 1–1 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: KV Mechelen and St. Truiden
KV Mechelen
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
St. Truiden
GoalsAssists
- S. Baždar50
- R. Merlen34
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.