Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom I Liga prediction & result
Final score: Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1 Polonia Bytom.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Puszcza Niepołomice, 27% draw, 28% Polonia Bytom — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Puszcza Niepołomice at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom
Puszcza Niepołomice
- L2-3away to Warta Poznań18 September 2026
- L1-2ŁKS Łódź11 September 2026
- W2-0Podbeskidzie29 August 2026
Polonia Bytom
- D0-0Ruch Chorzów18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Polonia Warszawa11 September 2026
- D0-0Podbeskidzie6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arka Gdynia30 August 2026
What these results say
- Polonia Bytom went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Polonia Bytom did not win any of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Polonia Bytom had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Polonia Bytom | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom
- 11 October 2026Puszcza Niepołomice 0–1 Polonia BytomI Liga
- 18 April 2026Puszcza Niepołomice 2–1 Polonia BytomI Liga
- 4 October 2025Polonia Bytom 1–1 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
- 6 July 2024Puszcza Niepołomice 1–1 Polonia BytomFriendlies Clubs
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.