Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Union St. Gilloise 1-1 OH Leuven.
Before kick-off the model made it 74% Union St. Gilloise, 18% draw, 8% OH Leuven — fair odds of 1.35, 5.56 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union St. Gilloise at 74% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12H. KoffiG
- 55N. HavenaarD
- 29M. SyllaD
- 4N. ChibaniD
- 6K. Van De PerreM
- 27L. PatrisM
- 23B. ZeneliM
- 28D. OlaruM
- 11Guilherme SmithM
- 9M. BiondicF
- 38R. MofokengF
- 1V. ChambaereG
- 71K. BoetsG
- 21D. De RoeveD
- 33D. EgelD
- 10A. Ait El HadjM
- 14I. PavlicM
- 20D. AquinoF
- 30R. FloruczF
- 13K. VromanG
- 5J. LawrenceD
- 3N. DussenneD
- 34R. NyakossiD
- 27O. GilM
- 6W. GeorgeM
- 8S. SchrijversM
- 99D. OpokuM
- 24L. LakomyF
- 18R. MirisolaF
- 21W. BalikwishaF
- 61O. JochmansG
- 26T. OgiwaraD
- 28E. PletinckxD
- 30A. FontanarosaD
- 4B. VerstraeteM
- 72S. MurruM
- 17K. VaesenF
- 19C. IkwuemesiF
- 7E. AddaiF
Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven
Union St. Gilloise
- W2-0away to Antwerp20 September 2026
- W5-0Lommel United12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Charleroi5 September 2026
- W3-0away to St. Truiden2 September 2026
OH Leuven
- W2-0RAAL La Louvière19 September 2026
- D1-1Cercle Brugge12 September 2026
- L0-3away to SK Beveren6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Gent3 September 2026
What these results say
- Union St. Gilloise won every one of these 4 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- OH Leuven failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- OH Leuven conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for OH Leuven had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 20 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven
- 11 October 2026Union St. Gilloise 1–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 24 January 2026OH Leuven 0–0 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 3 August 2025Union St. Gilloise 5–0 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 19 January 2025Union St. Gilloise 1–0 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 24 November 2024OH Leuven 1–1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 2 March 2024OH Leuven 0–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven
Union St. Gilloise
GoalsAssists
- R. Florucz40
- R. Mofokeng31
OH Leuven
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.