Standard Liege vs Charleroi Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Standard Liege 0-1 Charleroi.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Standard Liege, 28% draw, 35% Charleroi — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Standard Liege at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Standard Liege vs Charleroi
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. EpoloG
- 13M. FosseyD
- 20I. KaramokoD
- 25I. HautekietD
- 3G. MortensenD
- 94C. NielsenM
- 22A. TrouilletM
- 84R. TouzgharM
- 17B. NgueneF
- 10D. EckertF
- 11A. AbidF
- 21L. PirardG
- 29D. DierckxD
- 18H. LawrenceD
- 23M. IlaimaharitraM
- 80R. FossoM
- 7T. MohrM
- 9A. ZeqiriF
- 77B. NsimbaF
- 15S. DrammehM
- 30M. KoneG
- 3K. Van Den KerkhofD
- 4A. OusouD
- 95C. KeitaD
- 24M. NzitaD
- 6A. BoukamirM
- 18Y. KhalifiM
- 14P. PfluckeM
- 8J. RomsaasM
- 20F. MbembaM
- 21A. ScheidlerF
- 1M. DelavalleeG
- 2T. RoweD
- 44M. SowD
- 33N. SolheidD
- 65M. KeraM
- 19I. CisseM
- 25A. ColassinF
- 13G. NawataM
- 9A. BojangF
Form going into Standard Liege vs Charleroi
Standard Liege
- L1-2away to Gent18 September 2026
- L2-4away to KVC Westerlo12 September 2026
- W1-0Antwerp5 September 2026
- W2-1away to OH Leuven29 August 2026
Charleroi
- W3-2Cercle Brugge19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Zulte Waregem13 September 2026
- L2-3Union St. Gilloise5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Kortrijk29 August 2026
What these results say
- Standard Liege scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Standard Liege conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Standard Liege had three goals or more.
- Charleroi scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Charleroi won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Charleroi conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Standard Liege vs Charleroi
- 11 October 2026Standard Liege 0–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 23 May 2026Standard Liege 0–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 18 April 2026Charleroi 1–2 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 18 January 2026Charleroi 2–0 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 31 October 2025Standard Liege 3–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 4 May 2025Standard Liege 0–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Standard Liege and Charleroi
Standard Liege
GoalsAssists
- D. Eckert Ayensa41
- A. Abid32
Charleroi
GoalsAssists
- F. Situmona Mbemba30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.