Sparta Praha vs Pardubice Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sparta Praha 2-0 Pardubice.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Sparta Praha, 22% draw, 15% Pardubice — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 63% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sparta Praha vs Pardubice
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 44Jakub SurovčíkG
- 25Ki-Jana HoeverD
- 6Tobias Kvalvagnes GuddalD
- 30Jaroslav ZelenýD
- 2Martin SuchomelD
- 38Hugo SochurekM
- 28Roman MacekM
- 26Patrik VydraM
- 17John MercadoF
- 14Jonatan Braut BrunesF
- 27Ebrima SinghatehF
- 31Matěj JurásekM
- 5Santiago EnemeM
- 19Adam ŠevinskýD
- 20Sivert MannsverkM
- 15Viktor VitályosD
- 66Sebastian ZajacG
- 47Krisztián HegyiG
- 3Pavel KadeřábekD
- 18Andy IrvingM
- 46Vladimir NeumanG
- 15Emmanuel GodwinD
- 33Denis HalinskýD
- 37Dávid KrčíkD
- 40Tobias BoledovicD
- 19Michal HlavatýM
- 6Marek IchaM
- 20Abdoull TankoM
- 90Giannis-Fivos BotosM
- 35Victor SamuelM
- 17Václav DrchalF
- 25Ryan MahutaD
- 16Tomáš JelínekM
- 9Daniel SmékalF
- 99KahuanF
- 27Martin ReilD
- 1Jáchym ŠerákG
- 43Jason NoslinD
- 12Jan TrédlD
- 11Jiri ZimaM
Form going into Sparta Praha vs Pardubice
Sparta Praha
- W3-0away to Sigma Olomouc20 September 2026
- W2-0FK Jablonec12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
Pardubice
- W2-1Bohemians 190519 September 2026
- W2-1away to Baník Ostrava13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slovácko5 September 2026
- L1-2Artis29 August 2026
What these results say
- Sparta Praha scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sparta Praha had three goals or more.
- Pardubice scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Pardubice conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Pardubice had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 18 |
| 14 | Pardubice | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs Pardubice
- 11 October 2026Sparta Praha 2–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 30 November 2025Sparta Praha 2–4 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 3 August 2025Pardubice 1–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 19 April 2025Pardubice 1–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 19 July 2024Sparta Praha 2–1 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 3 December 2023Pardubice 1–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and Pardubice
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
Pardubice
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.