Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Plzen 3-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Plzen, 24% draw, 27% Mlada Boleslav — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Plzen at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Dominik ŤapajG
- 29Adam GabrielD
- 40Sampson DwehD
- 98Filip PrebslD
- 2Tobias PališčákD
- 36Stefan PirgićM
- 17Patrik HrošovskýM
- 99Amar MemićM
- 20Jiří PanošM
- 12Alexandr SojkaM
- 25Christophe KabongoF
- 19Cheick SouaréM
- 23Baboucarr FaalF
- 18Tomáš LadraF
- 9Denis VišinskýM
- 6Lukáš ČervM
- 30Viktor BaierG
- 5Karel SpáčilD
- 3Denis VavroD
- 7Salim Fago LawalF
- 59Jiří FloderG
- 32Filip MatoušekD
- 44Ondrej KarafiatD
- 3Martin KrálikD
- 11Matěj HybšD
- 19David KozelM
- 76Jan ZíkaM
- 20Solomon JohnM
- 28Daniel LanghamerM
- 21Martin ŠubertM
- 23Jiří KlímaF
- 49Josef KoláříkM
- 70Jan BuryanF
- 26Matěj ZachovalD
- 18Marek HavranM
- 17Filip ŠpatenkaF
- 42Vojtěch VorelG
- 13Denis DonátD
- 5Harustak JanD
- 14Samuel GrygarM
Form going into Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav
Plzen
- L1-2away to Slavia Praha20 September 2026
- L2-3Sigma Olomouc13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hradec Králové9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Artis5 September 2026
Mlada Boleslav
- W2-0Zbrojovka Brno19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Slovan Liberec12 September 2026
- W4-0Baník Ostrava6 September 2026
What these results say
- Plzen failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Plzen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Plzen had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Plzen | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 13 |
| 4 | Mlada Boleslav | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav
- 10 October 2026Plzen 3–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 30 November 2025Plzen 2–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 19 August 2025Mlada Boleslav 0–5 PlzenCzech Liga
- 2 March 2025Mlada Boleslav 0–2 PlzenCzech Liga
- 29 September 2024Plzen 1–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 5 May 2024Plzen 3–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Plzen and Mlada Boleslav
Plzen
GoalsAssists
- C. Kabongo40
Mlada Boleslav
GoalsAssists
- M. Šubert61
- J. Klíma41
- S. John33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.