Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Zbrojovka Brno 0-1 FK Jablonec.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Zbrojovka Brno, 29% draw, 29% FK Jablonec — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zbrojovka Brno at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Adam HrdinaG
- 39Jakub KlímaD
- 38Jakub PokornýD
- 3Kauan Carneiro KakaD
- 6Lukas PenxaM
- 8Patrik ČavošM
- 17Jaromír ZmrhalM
- 44Amadou DanteM
- 10Antonin VanicekF
- 15Daniel VašulínF
- 79Soliu AfolabiF
- 77Lucky EzehF
- 14Tadeáš VachoušekF
- 7Štěpán LangerM
- 11Martin RymarenkoF
- 26Filip VedralD
- 78Ondrej ProdelalG
- 4Eric HunalD
- 19Bienvenue KanakimanaF
- 18Denis GranečnýD
- 1Jan HanušG
- 18Martin CedidlaD
- 4Nemanja TekijaškiD
- 15Dušan PavlovićD
- 23Eduard SobolD
- 7Vakhtang ChanturishviliM
- 13Richard SedláčekM
- 25Sebastian NebylaM
- 36Garang KuolM
- 24Dominik HollýF
- 44Lamin JawoF
- 17Saidou Alioum MoubarakF
- 9Antonín RůsekF
- 6Nelson OkekeM
- 57Filip NovákD
- 14Daniel SoučekD
- 33Michal KukučkaG
- 8Filip ZorvanM
- 21Matěj PolidarM
- 16Hugo AhlM
Form going into Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec
Zbrojovka Brno
- L0-2away to Mlada Boleslav19 September 2026
- W2-1Artis12 September 2026
- L0-4away to Slavia Praha5 September 2026
- W1-0Hradec Králové2 September 2026
FK Jablonec
- D1-1Zlin20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha12 September 2026
- W3-0Baník Ostrava9 September 2026
- L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
What these results say
- Zbrojovka Brno conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FK Jablonec failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- FK Jablonec scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FK Jablonec conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Zbrojovka Brno | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 6 | FK Jablonec | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec
- 10 October 2026Zbrojovka Brno 0–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 21 May 2023FK Jablonec 1–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 19 March 2023Zbrojovka Brno 1–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 2 October 2022FK Jablonec 3–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 14 March 2021Zbrojovka Brno 1–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 6 November 2020FK Jablonec 0–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec
Zbrojovka Brno
GoalsAssists
- D. Vašulín40
- A. Vaníček31
FK Jablonec
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.