Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Bohemians 1905 1-0 Baník Ostrava.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Bohemians 1905, 29% draw, 26% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bohemians 1905 at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Tomáš FrühwaldG
- 32Petr MirvaldD
- 24Milan HavelD
- 27David LischkaD
- 3Matej KadlecD
- 37Dominik JavorčekD
- 47Aleš ČermákM
- 42Vojtěch SmržM
- 16Roman KvetM
- 9Ladislav KrobotF
- 99Ladislav AlmásiF
- 62Samuel ObinayaM
- 11Václav PilařM
- 70Šimon ČernýM
- 8David HeidenreichD
- 18Denis VálaD
- 12Michal ReichlG
- 25Peter KareemD
- 15Mathews BandaD
- 22Jan VondraD
- 23Martin JedličkaG
- 17Michal FrydrychD
- 83Roan NoghaD
- 42Jiri MicekD
- 95Daniel HolzerM
- 19Filip ŠanclM
- 5Jiří BoulaM
- 18David PlankaM
- 34Abdullahi BeweneM
- 15Václav JurečkaF
- 22Vit SkrkonF
- 7Dantaye GilbertM
- 55Artúr MusákM
- 8Aboubacar TraoreM
- 21Michal KohútM
- 81Matúš KmeťD
- 1Viktor BudinskýG
- 3Rhodri SmithD
- 37Matěj ChalušD
- 28Filip KubalaF
Form going into Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava
Bohemians 1905
- L1-2away to Pardubice19 September 2026
- W2-0Slovácko12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Sigma Olomouc5 September 2026
Baník Ostrava
- D2-2away to Slovácko19 September 2026
- L1-2Pardubice13 September 2026
- L0-3away to FK Jablonec9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Mlada Boleslav6 September 2026
What these results say
- Baník Ostrava did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Baník Ostrava conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Baník Ostrava had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bohemians 1905 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 | Baník Ostrava | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava
- 10 October 2026Bohemians 1905 1–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 18 April 2026Baník Ostrava 0–2 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 19 July 2025Bohemians 1905 1–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 19 April 2025Baník Ostrava 1–0 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 20 July 2024Bohemians 1905 2–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 24 February 2024Baník Ostrava 1–1 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
Leading scorers: Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava
Bohemians 1905
GoalsAssists
- A. Čermák41
Baník Ostrava
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.