FC Orenburg vs Dinamo Makhachkala Premier League prediction & result
Final score: FC Orenburg 4-0 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC Orenburg, 30% draw, 32% Dinamo Makhachkala — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Orenburg at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Orenburg vs Dinamo Makhachkala
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. OvsyannikovG
- 24M. SivisD
- 6J. PalaciosD
- 5A. TataevD
- 26E. TsenovD
- 78R. KulM
- 57E. BolotovM
- 10J. ThompsonM
- 8D. PueblaM
- 20D. RybchinskiyM
- 30G. GuzinaF
- 35A. DegtevG
- 21Benjamín BoschF
- 27Renat GolybinM
- 77A. KasadzhikovF
- 38A. KasimovD
- 4D. KhotulevD
- 22A. LukashovD
- 63O. MinatulaevM
- 11E. NazarenkoM
- 33N. KarabashevG
- 23M. MakhamadjonovD
- 43I. AkhmedovD
- 99M. AlibekovD
- 88D. LesovoyD
- 77T. SundukovD
- 47N. GlushkovM
- 6M. ApshatsevM
- 14D. KuzyaevM
- 16H. MrezigueF
- 25G. AgalarovF
- 21Abdulpasha DzhabrailovM
- 10M. HosseinnezhadM
- 13S. KagermazovD
- 8V. KhubulovM
- 9R. MagomedovM
- 39T. MagomedovG
- 11MiroF
- 28S. SerderovF
- 1D. VolkG
Form going into FC Orenburg vs Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
- D0-0FC Krasnodar17 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dynamo12 September 2026
- D2-2Akron6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Moscow30 August 2026
Dinamo Makhachkala
- L1-3CSKA Moscow17 September 2026
- L2-3away to Akhmat13 September 2026
- W2-0Rodina Moskva6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rubin30 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Orenburg did not win any of these 4 matches.
- FC Orenburg conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for FC Orenburg had two goals or fewer.
- Dinamo Makhachkala scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Orenburg | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Orenburg vs Dinamo Makhachkala
- 10 October 2026FC Orenburg 4–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 13 March 2026Dinamo Makhachkala 1–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 27 July 2025FC Orenburg 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 19 April 2025FC Orenburg 2–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 9 November 2024Dinamo Makhachkala 2–1 FC OrenburgPremier League
Leading scorers: FC Orenburg and Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Dinamo Makhachkala
GoalsAssists
- G. Agalarov50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.