Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Chornomorets 1-2 FC Kharkiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% Chornomorets, 30% draw, 48% FC Kharkiv — fair odds of 4.55, 3.33 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Kharkiv at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv
Line-ups
- 12C. AniagbosoG
- 21V. KlymenkoD
- 24M. JarjuD
- 74M. FarinaD
- 27O. PushkarevD
- 30M. JobeM
- 18G. RobakidzeM
- 11K. PopovM
- 13V. FaraseenkoM
- 7D. AlefirenkoM
- 70J. YokaF
- 35M. KovalG
- 16N. BaydaG
- 52S. YarmolaD
- 23O. GusevD
- 9A. KhomaF
- 20Nikita StepovyiM
- 4M. KratovD
- 77Vladyslav HerychM
- 60M. MelnychenkoM
- 1H. ErmakovG
- 27I. KrupskyiD
- 13V. SalyukD
- 31A. ShabanovD
- 29A. SmolyakovD
- 5I. KalyuzhnyiM
- 18Y. PavlyukM
- 14R. GadzhievM
- 10C. ParacoM
- 7B. ZabërgjaM
- 98P. ItodoF
- 11S. CastilloM
- 16N. ÁrevaloM
- 19E. RashicaM
- 25I. KogutM
- 8O. YatsykM
- 9D. AntyukhM
- 24O. MartynyukD
- 37V. DubkoD
- 30D. VarakutaG
Form going into Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv
Chornomorets
- D1-1Obolon'-Brovar18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Shakhtar Donetsk14 September 2026
- D0-0Livyi Bereh4 September 2026
- W1-0Kryvbas KR30 August 2026
FC Kharkiv
- W2-0Bukovyna19 September 2026
- W5-0Obolon'-Brovar5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Zorya Luhansk31 August 2026
- L0-1Shakhtar Donetsk16 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Chornomorets had two goals or fewer.
- Chornomorets failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Kharkiv won 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Kharkiv scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Kharkiv kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Chornomorets | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv
- 12 May 2024Chornomorets 3–0 FC KharkivPremier League
- 5 November 2023FC Kharkiv 2–1 ChornomoretsPremier League
- 11 March 2023Chornomorets 1–1 FC KharkivPremier League
- 27 August 2022FC Kharkiv 0–0 ChornomoretsPremier League
- 12 December 2021Chornomorets 2–1 FC KharkivPremier League
- 6 August 2021FC Kharkiv 3–2 ChornomoretsPremier League
Leading scorers: Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv
Chornomorets
GoalsAssists
- K. Popov20
FC Kharkiv
GoalsAssists
- B. Zabërgja21
- P. Itodo21
- C. Paraco20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.