10 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

FC Krasnodar vs Zenit Premier League prediction & result

Ozon Arena, Krasnodar
Referee: Inal Tanashev, Russia
Full time2 – 3

Final score: FC Krasnodar 2-3 Zenit.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% FC Krasnodar, 29% draw, 32% Zenit — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Krasnodar at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Krasnodar0%Draw3%Zenit97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Aleksandr Sobolev
Daniil Utkin
19'
31'
Luiz Henrique
Lucas Olaza
31'
40'
⚽Maksim Glushenkovassist: Douglas Santos
Aleksandr Chernikov
45+2'
45+4'
⚽Maksim Glushenkovassist: Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santos
🔁Valentin Paltsevout: Ilya Vakhania
45'
50'
Douglas Santos
53'
⚽Aleksandr Sobolevassist: Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santos
⚽Joao Batxi
55'
🔁Aleksandr Chernikovout: Magomed Ozdoev
61'
⚽Jhon Cordobaassist: Ilya Vakhania
71'
74'
🔁Artem Karpukasout: Kevin Andrade
•Vitor Tormena
78'
Vitor Tormena
80'
81'
🔁Maksim Glushenkovout: Daniil Kondakov
81'
🔁Luiz Henriqueout: Jhon Jhon
🔁Christianout: Juan Manuel Boselli
82'
🔁Joao Batxiout: Álex Maizon Rodríguez González
83'
🔁Daniil Utkinout: Sergey Petrov
85'
Magomed Ozdoev
90+6'

Match stats — FC Krasnodar vs Zenit

51%Possession49%
14Shots15
5On target7
3Corners3
1.24xG0.94

Goals against chances

FC Krasnodar2 from 1.24 xGmore than the chances were worth
Zenit3 from 0.94 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Krasnodar 4-3-3
  • 1S. AgkatsevG
  • 17V. PaltsevD
  • 3Vítor TormenaD
  • 5JubalD
  • 15L. OlazaD
  • 53A. ChernikovM
  • 8Douglas AugustoM
  • 18ChristianM
  • 47D. UtkinF
  • 9J. CórdobaF
  • 11BatxiF
Substitutes
  • 23J. BoselliF
  • 59A. KhmarinD
  • 16A. KoryakinG
  • 6Kevin PinaM
  • 21M. OzdoevM
  • 98S. PetrovD
  • 2M. RodríguezD
  • 40I. VakhaniaD
  • 10D. VorobjevF
Coach: M. Musaev
Zenit 4-2-3-1
  • 16D. AdamovG
  • 31Gustavo MantuanD
  • 33NinoD
  • 28N. AlipD
  • 3Douglas SantosD
  • 5W. BarriosM
  • 93A. KarpukasM
  • 11Luiz HenriqueM
  • 10M. GlushenkovM
  • 20Pedro HenriqueM
  • 7A. SobolevF
Substitutes
  • 21A. ErokhinM
  • 82S. VolkovD
  • 66R. VegaD
  • 51V. ShilovF
  • 57B. MoskvichevG
  • 61D. KondakovM
  • 15V. KaravaevD
  • 14Jhon JhonM
  • 9Felipe AugustoF
Coach: S. Semak

Form going into FC Krasnodar vs Zenit

FC Krasnodar

  • D0-0away to FC Orenburg17 September 2026
  • D1-1Akron13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Krylia Sovetov5 September 2026
  • W1-0FC Rostov29 August 2026

Zenit

  • W3-2away to Baltika16 September 2026
  • W2-1Lokomotiv12 September 2026
  • L1-2CSKA Moscow5 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Fakel29 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Krasnodar went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • FC Krasnodar failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC Krasnodar scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Zenit scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Zenit won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Zenit conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4FC Krasnodar106311610+621
3Zenit107032211+1121

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Krasnodar vs Zenit

  • 10 October 2026FC Krasnodar 2–3 ZenitPremier League
  • 12 April 2026Zenit 1–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
  • 17 February 2026FC Krasnodar 0–1 ZenitFriendlies Clubs
  • 6 February 2026FC Krasnodar 3–0 ZenitFriendlies Clubs
  • 21 September 2025FC Krasnodar 0–2 ZenitPremier League
  • 13 April 2025Zenit 4–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League

Leading scorers: FC Krasnodar and Zenit

FC Krasnodar

GoalsAssists

  • Batxi31
  • N. Krivtsov31
  • Jubal30

Zenit

GoalsAssists

  • M. Glushenkov82
  • A. Sobolev82

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.