Vasas vs Kisvarda FC NB I prediction & result
Final score: Vasas 1-1 Kisvarda FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Vasas, 25% draw, 21% Kisvarda FC — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasas at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vasas vs Kisvarda FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 87M. EngediG
- 4B. PávkovicsD
- 57P. IyinborD
- 17Dániel CsókaD
- 14Á. DoktoricsD
- 15S. HidiM
- 16B. RabM
- 10M. KovácsrétiM
- 88J. UrblíkM
- 77M. TóthM
- 9M. KosztaF
- 36B. BaráthD
- 22Viktor HeiD
- 84Rajmund HorvathF
- 24S. MezeiM
- 18G. PálinkásF
- 29B. PethőF
- 7A. RadóF
- 6D. SztojkaM
- 89Csaba Milán MolnárM
- 23I. PopovichG
- 55K. NagyD
- 42T. LippaiD
- 25B. ŠerbečićD
- 10D. SoltészD
- 80H. MbockM
- 11M. MatanovićM
- 24C. HercM
- 14B. MelnykM
- 21G. SzikszaiM
- 27J. MešanovićF
- 22A. YougaM
- 70L. SzőrM
- 6Maxim OsztrovkaM
- 18K. KörmendiM
- 4M. ChlumeckýD
- 29B. BíróF
- 37Miroslav BabjakD
- 45T. A. BalogunF
- 9Y. OkoronkwoF
Form going into Vasas vs Kisvarda FC
Vasas
- W4-2away to Debreceni VSC19 September 2026
- W3-2Nyiregyhaza4 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ujpest29 August 2026
- L0-1Puskas Academy22 August 2026
Kisvarda FC
- L0-1Paks19 September 2026
- W2-1away to MTK Budapest5 September 2026
- D1-1Gyori ETO FC30 August 2026
- D0-0Debreceni VSC23 August 2026
What these results say
- Vasas conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Vasas scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Vasas had three goals or more.
- Kisvarda FC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Kisvarda FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Kisvarda FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Vasas | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vasas vs Kisvarda FC
- 10 October 2026Vasas 1–1 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 8 July 2026Vasas 3–1 Kisvarda FCFriendlies Clubs
- 10 February 2025Kisvarda FC 0–0 VasasNB II
- 28 July 2024Vasas 3–1 Kisvarda FCNB II
- 19 May 2023Kisvarda FC 2–1 VasasNB I
- 25 February 2023Vasas 2–2 Kisvarda FCNB I
Leading scorers: Vasas and Kisvarda FC
Vasas
GoalsAssists
- M. Kovácsréti21
- M. Tóth21
Kisvarda FC
GoalsAssists
- C. Herc30
- M. Matanović22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.