11 October 2026, 14:45 UTC

Budapest Honved vs Ujpest NB I prediction & result

Bozsik Arena, Budapest
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Budapest Honved 1-1 Ujpest.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Budapest Honved, 24% draw, 37% Ujpest — fair odds of 2.56, 4.17 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Budapest Honved at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Budapest Honved5%Draw90%Ujpest5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

I. Pekár
17'
🔁Tamás Somogyiout: Adi Alić
45'
55'
🔁Krisztofer Horvathout: Ábel Krajcsovics
56'
🔁Muhamed Tijaniout: Gleofilo Vlijter
58'
Aljosa Matko
🔁I. Pekárout: Reda Eddarraj
66'
🔁Alberto Mariout: Patrik Pinte
66'
66'
🔁Ferenc Ujváryout: Attila Fiola
68'
Heitor Marinho dos Santos
70'
⚽Gleofilo Vlijterassist: Etienne Amenyido
⚽Patrik Pinte
73'
Reda Eddarraj
79'
Patrik Pinte
81'
🔁Oleksandr Safronovout: Deian Boldor
84'
🔁Ákos Zuigeberout: Branko Pauljević
84'
90+2'
🔁Etienne Amenyidoout: Tizian Valentino Scharmer

Match stats — Budapest Honved vs Ujpest

46%Possession54%
9Shots13
3On target5
0Corners13
1.34xG1.34

Goals against chances

Budapest Honved1 from 1.34 xGabout what the chances were worth
Ujpest1 from 1.34 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Budapest Honved 4-4-2
  • 31O. HadžikićG
  • 33O. SafronovD
  • 44Á. BakiD
  • 4A. SzabóD
  • 11S. HangyaD
  • 7A. ZuigeberM
  • 99I. PekárM
  • 5D. CsontosM
  • 40Adam SzamosiM
  • 30T. SomogyiF
  • 45Alberto MaríF
Substitutes
  • 52D. BoldorD
  • 15Bonifac CsonkaD
  • 1G. DúzsG
  • 80R. EddarrajM
  • 9Á. GyurcsóF
  • 49B. PauljevićD
  • 17P. PinteF
  • 71K. KantorF
  • 3P. GarciaD
Coach: M. Jacobacci
Ujpest 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. SzappanosG
  • 36Ferenc UjvaryD
  • 3HeitorD
  • 94P. StronatiD
  • 20M. ZekeD
  • 88M. LjujićM
  • 8N. SzendreiM
  • 17A. MatkoM
  • 14E. AmenyidoM
  • 11K. HorváthM
  • 26M. TijaniF
Substitutes
  • 27Á. KrajcsovicsF
  • 10A. MaierM
  • 15M. MátéM
  • 5A. FiolaD
  • 38K. SarkadiM
  • 21T. ScharmerM
  • 39G. VlijterF
  • 2J. BodnárD
  • 23D. BanaiG
Coach: Z. Szélesi

Form going into Budapest Honved vs Ujpest

Budapest Honved

  • L1-3away to Puskas Academy18 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Gyori ETO FC6 September 2026
  • W1-0Zalaegerszegi TE29 August 2026
  • L1-2Vasas14 August 2026

Ujpest

  • W2-1Zalaegerszegi TE20 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Ferencvarosi TC6 September 2026
  • W3-1Vasas29 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Paks21 August 2026

What these results say

  • Budapest Honved scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Budapest Honved failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Budapest Honved conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Ujpest conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Ujpest scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Ujpest had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Budapest Honved81431215-37
4Ujpest94321814+415

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Budapest Honved vs Ujpest

  • 11 October 2026Budapest Honved 1–1 UjpestNB I
  • 21 April 2023Budapest Honved 0–1 UjpestNB I
  • 29 January 2023Ujpest 2–1 Budapest HonvedNB I
  • 1 September 2022Budapest Honved 0–0 UjpestNB I
  • 20 March 2022Ujpest 0–2 Budapest HonvedNB I
  • 27 November 2021Budapest Honved 1–2 UjpestNB I

Leading scorers: Budapest Honved and Ujpest

Budapest Honved

No player in NB I's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Ujpest

GoalsAssists

  • A. Matko53
  • E. Amenyido34
  • G. Vlijter32

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.