Paks vs MTK Budapest NB I prediction & result
Final score: Paks 3-0 MTK Budapest.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Paks, 23% draw, 30% MTK Budapest — fair odds of 2.13, 4.35 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paks at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Paks vs MTK Budapest
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28M. GyetvánG
- 6M. GyőrfiD
- 12G. VasD
- 2Á. KinyikD
- 30J. SzabóD
- 14E. SilyeD
- 10Z. HarasztiM
- 22J. WindeckerM
- 8B. BaloghM
- 21K. PappM
- 7J. SzalaiF
- 5B. VécseiM
- 15C. BelényesiD
- 27J. GalambosF
- 18G. GyurkitsM
- 9J. HahnF
- 19K. HorváthM
- 1Á. KovácsikG
- 4A. LapuM
- 17M. PetőM
- 24T. FadgyasG
- 26V. ArmalasD
- 4I. BeriashviliD
- 55S. RadićD
- 13M. TimoteusD
- 80Adrian ZeljkovićM
- 6M. KataM
- 11G. JurekM
- 17K. HinoraM
- 77G. KomáromiM
- 20Zalán Márk KerezsiF
- 2B. VarjuD
- 29S. SzuhodovszkiM
- 27P. KovácsD
- 9M. KlauszF
- 10I. BognárM
- 43Bence VargaG
- 8A. G. ZuborM
- 30Sámuel Barnabás BakóF
Form going into Paks vs MTK Budapest
Paks
- W1-0away to Kisvarda FC19 September 2026
- L2-4Debreceni VSC5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Nyiregyhaza29 August 2026
- W2-0Ujpest21 August 2026
MTK Budapest
- L1-2Gyori ETO FC20 September 2026
- L1-2Kisvarda FC5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Debreceni VSC28 August 2026
- W2-1Nyiregyhaza22 August 2026
What these results say
- Paks scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Paks had two goals or fewer.
- MTK Budapest scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- MTK Budapest conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for MTK Budapest had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Paks | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Paks vs MTK Budapest
- 10 October 2026Paks 3–0 MTK BudapestNB I
- 20 March 2026MTK Budapest 0–2 PaksNB I
- 6 December 2025Paks 3–1 MTK BudapestNB I
- 24 August 2025MTK Budapest 2–3 PaksNB I
- 11 April 2025MTK Budapest 1–2 PaksNB I
- 7 December 2024Paks 4–2 MTK BudapestNB I
Leading scorers: Paks and MTK Budapest
Paks
GoalsAssists
- J. Szalai61
- M. Pető40
- Z. Haraszti22
MTK Budapest
GoalsAssists
- G. Jurek51
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi43
- I. Bognár22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.