Akhmat vs Baltika Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Akhmat 0-0 Baltika.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Akhmat, 28% draw, 35% Baltika — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Akhmat at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Akhmat vs Baltika
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1V. UlyanovG
- 95A. AdamovD
- 4T. IbishevD
- 6K. SidibéD
- 5K. CakeD
- 8M. BogosavacD
- 17Egas CacinturaM
- 11Ismael Silva LimaM
- 18Júlio RomãoM
- 7L. SadulaevM
- 13M. KonatéF
- 81M. SidorovD
- 10K. ShchetininM
- 19S. PryakhinM
- 90O. NdongD
- 71R. MitsaevG
- 70A. GadzhievM
- 97A. KasadzhikovF
- 42Manuel KelianoM
- 76E. MaksutiF
- 1E. LatyshonokG
- 22M. BeveevD
- 2S. VaratynovD
- 24L. MouyokoloD
- 4N. GassamaD
- 77E. ĆivićD
- 73M. PetrovM
- 26I. BelikovM
- 10I. PetrovM
- 7K. ShiltsovM
- 9C. OfforF
- 42V. PospelovM
- 11I. PorokhovF
- 8A. MendelM
- 44E. LyubakovG
- 81I. KukushkinG
- 14S. KovačM
- 3I. KirschD
- 98German IvaD
- 69E. GolenkovF
Form going into Akhmat vs Baltika
Akhmat
- L0-2away to Akron17 September 2026
- W3-2Dinamo Makhachkala13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rubin7 September 2026
- D3-3Krylia Sovetov29 August 2026
Baltika
- L2-3Zenit16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Fakel12 September 2026
- L0-1Lokomotiv6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Rodina Moskva30 August 2026
What these results say
- Akhmat conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Akhmat failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Akhmat scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Baltika failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Baltika scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Baltika conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Akhmat | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Akhmat vs Baltika
- 11 October 2026Akhmat 0–0 BaltikaPremier League
- 23 April 2026Akhmat 1–1 BaltikaPremier League
- 18 February 2026Baltika 2–2 AkhmatFriendlies Clubs
- 2 November 2025Baltika 2–0 AkhmatPremier League
- 13 April 2024Akhmat Grozny 1–7 BaltikaPremier League
- 31 October 2023Baltika 4–1 Akhmat GroznyCup
Leading scorers: Akhmat and Baltika
Akhmat
GoalsAssists
- Egas Cacintura31
- G. Melkadze30
Baltika
GoalsAssists
- B. Gil41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.