CSKA Moscow vs Rodina Moskva Premier League prediction & result
Final score: CSKA Moscow 3-0 Rodina Moskva.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% CSKA Moscow, 20% draw, 16% Rodina Moskva — fair odds of 1.56, 5.00 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Moscow at 64% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CSKA Moscow vs Rodina Moskva
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49V. ToropG
- 21M. AzziD
- 4João VictorD
- 90M. LukinD
- 23Dzhamalutdin AbdulkadyrovD
- 3D. KrugovoyD
- 31M. KislyakM
- 10I. OblyakovM
- 19I. OleynikovM
- 7Matheus AlvesF
- 32L. GondouF
- 99Nikolay BarovskiyG
- 39M. BoriskoG
- 79M. ZeaD
- 61P. FilyushinD
- 62I. FirovF
- 17K. GlebovF
- 37HenriqueM
- 18D. KozlovM
- 11T. MusaevF
- 13S. VolkovG
- 2Igor SilvaD
- 26A. MeshchaninovD
- 6R. FishchenkoD
- 75M. NadéD
- 20D. MachadoD
- 9A. MaksimenkoM
- 10Y. ReynaM
- 11B. MansillaM
- 17S. BakaevM
- 99I. TimoshenkoF
- 1S. AydarovG
- 23K. UshatovM
- 80S. BessmertnyD
- 95K. CissokoF
- 3L. GoglichidzeD
- 55M. KrižanD
- 38L. MusaevM
- 7G. OnugkhaF
- 50Rodrigo BecãoD
Form going into CSKA Moscow vs Rodina Moskva
CSKA Moscow
- W3-1away to Dinamo Makhachkala17 September 2026
- D1-1Rubin12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Zenit5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Akron28 August 2026
Rodina Moskva
- D1-1Rubin16 September 2026
- L1-2away to Krylia Sovetov11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Makhachkala6 September 2026
- L0-3Baltika30 August 2026
What these results say
- CSKA Moscow went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- CSKA Moscow scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- CSKA Moscow conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Rodina Moskva did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Rodina Moskva conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CSKA Moscow | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 22 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Moscow vs Rodina Moskva
- 11 October 2026CSKA Moscow 3–0 Rodina MoskvaPremier League
- 16 February 2024CSKA Moscow 4–0 Rodina MoskvaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: CSKA Moscow and Rodina Moskva
CSKA Moscow
GoalsAssists
- I. Oblyakov61
- I. Oleynikov34
- L. Gondou31
Rodina Moskva
GoalsAssists
- A. Maksimenko31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.