Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Teplice 1-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Teplice, 26% draw, 32% Sigma Olomouc — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Teplice at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29Matouš TrmalG
- 6Michal BílekD
- 4Oskars VientiessD
- 28Dalibor VečerkaD
- 25Matej RizničD
- 8Jan FortelnýM
- 23Lukáš MarečekM
- 35Matej RadostaM
- 17John AutaF
- 33Tomas ZlatohlavekF
- 12Marcel ČermákF
- 3Josef ŠvandaM
- 11Matyáš KozákF
- 37Daniel MarečekM
- 21Idris HopiF
- 19Robert JuklM
- 31Krystof LichtenbergG
- 5Jakub JakubkoD
- 15Jaroslav HarustakD
- 22Laco TakacsD
- 91Jan KoutnýG
- 2Abdoulaye SyllaD
- 33Matúš MalýD
- 3Louis LurvinkD
- 70Abubakar GhaliM
- 14Marko SoldoM
- 7Michal BeranM
- 4Léo BorgesM
- 39Dominik JanošekF
- 10Václav SejkF
- 24David TkáčF
- 22Matěj HadašD
- 5Tomáš HukD
- 9Jan KlimentF
- 98Matúš HruškaG
- 16Filip SlavíčekD
- 6Jáchym ŠípM
- 8Jiří SpáčilM
- 11Hilmir Rafn MikaelssonF
- 17John Paul DembeF
Form going into Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc
Teplice
- W2-0away to Hradec Králové20 September 2026
- L0-2Slavia Praha13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Zlin6 September 2026
- W2-0FK Jablonec30 August 2026
Sigma Olomouc
- L0-3Sparta Praha20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Plzen13 September 2026
- W3-0Bohemians 19055 September 2026
- L0-1away to Baník Ostrava29 August 2026
What these results say
- Teplice won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Teplice scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Teplice had two goals or fewer.
- Sigma Olomouc conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sigma Olomouc had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Teplice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 17 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc
- 11 October 2026Teplice 1–1 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 22 February 2026Teplice 1–3 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 20 September 2025Sigma Olomouc 0–0 TepliceCzech Liga
- 30 November 2024Teplice 1–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 3 August 2024Sigma Olomouc 2–1 TepliceCzech Liga
- 21 February 2024Teplice 2–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Teplice and Sigma Olomouc
Teplice
GoalsAssists
- John Auta40
- M. Pulkrab31
- L. Mareček31
Sigma Olomouc
GoalsAssists
- A. Ghali41
- V. Sejk33
- P. Baráth31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.