Bohemians 1905
vs
Mlada Boleslav
Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Bohemians 1905 1-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Bohemians 1905, 30% draw, 33% Mlada Boleslav — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bohemians 1905 1.23, Mlada Boleslav 1.14.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Czech Liga predictions
Model insights: Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bohemians 1905 at 37% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23T. FrühwaldG
- 32P. MirvaldD
- 24M. HavelD
- 27D. LischkaD
- 3Matej KadlecD
- 37D. JavorčekD
- 47A. ČermákM
- 42V. SmržM
- 16R. KvětM
- 9L. KrobotF
- 99L. AlmásiF
- 15M. BandaD
- 70Simon CernyM
- 8D. HeidenreichD
- 25P. KareemD
- 19J. KovaříkM
- 62Samuel ObinayaM
- 11V. PilařM
- 12M. ReichlG
- 18D. ValaD
- 59J. FloderG
- 13D. DonátD
- 44O. KarafiátD
- 3M. KrálikD
- 11M. HybšD
- 17F. ŠpatenkaM
- 76Jan ZikaM
- 20S. JohnM
- 28D. LanghamerM
- 21M. ŠubertM
- 23J. KlímaF
- 14S. GrygarM
- 5J. HarušťákD
- 18M. HavranM
- 49J. KoláříkM
- 19D. KozelM
- 9L. LetenayF
- 32F. MatoušekD
- 77D. PechM
- 42V. VorelG
Form going into Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav
Bohemians 1905
- W1-0Baník Ostrava10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Pardubice19 September 2026
- W2-0Slovácko12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Sigma Olomouc5 September 2026
Mlada Boleslav
- L0-3away to Plzen10 October 2026
- W2-0Zbrojovka Brno19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Slovan Liberec12 September 2026
- W4-0Baník Ostrava6 September 2026
What these results say
- Bohemians 1905 scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Mlada Boleslav had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bohemians 1905 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Mlada Boleslav | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav
- 31 January 2026Mlada Boleslav 2–2 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 5 November 2025Bohemians 1905 0–0 Mlada BoleslavCup
- 22 October 2025Bohemians 1905 1–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 15 March 2025Mlada Boleslav 1–2 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 26 February 2025Mlada Boleslav 0–2 Bohemians 1905Cup
- 20 October 2024Bohemians 1905 2–2 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav
Bohemians 1905
GoalsAssists
- A. Čermák41
Mlada Boleslav
GoalsAssists
- M. Šubert61
- J. Klíma41
- S. John33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.23 goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.14 for Mlada Boleslav; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Aleš Čermák 13' (Bohemians 1905).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bohemians 1905 the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 against 1.14 for Mlada Boleslav. Bohemians 1905's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.23 for Mlada Boleslav.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.