Sigma Olomouc
vs
Slovan Liberec
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Slovan Liberec
The model makes it 38% Sigma Olomouc, 30% draw, 32% Slovan Liberec — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sigma Olomouc 1.26, Slovan Liberec 1.11.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sigma Olomouc are 5th on 17 points from 10 games; Slovan Liberec are 2nd on 20 points from 10 games — Czech Liga.
- Sigma Olomouc have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Teplice.
- Slovan Liberec have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Slovácko.
- Last 6 meetings: Slovan Liberec 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 November 2025, ended Slovan Liberec 1–0 Sigma Olomouc.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sigma Olomouc at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec
Sigma Olomouc
- D1-1away to Teplice11 October 2026
- L0-3Sparta Praha20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Plzen13 September 2026
- W3-0Bohemians 19055 September 2026
- L0-1away to Baník Ostrava29 August 2026
Slovan Liberec
- L0-2Slovácko11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Artis19 September 2026
- W3-0Mlada Boleslav12 September 2026
- W2-1away to FK Jablonec6 September 2026
- W2-0Hradec Králové30 August 2026
What these results say
- Sigma Olomouc conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sigma Olomouc
Chance to finish in the top four · 28% today
Slovan Liberec
Chance to finish in the top four · 45% today
From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec
- 30 November 2025Slovan Liberec 1–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 2 August 2025Sigma Olomouc 2–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 24 November 2024Sigma Olomouc 1–4 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 28 July 2024Slovan Liberec 1–1 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 10 February 2024Slovan Liberec 2–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 27 August 2023Sigma Olomouc 2–0 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec
Sigma Olomouc
GoalsAssists
- A. Ghali41
- V. Sejk33
- P. Baráth31
Slovan Liberec
GoalsAssists
- P. Dulay31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sigma Olomouc carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.76 for Slovan Liberec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.11 for Slovan Liberec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sigma Olomouc rate 0.92 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slovan Liberec rate 0.71 and 0.90.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Slovan Liberec, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sigma Olomouc a 0.3% chance of the title and Slovan Liberec 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sigma Olomouc the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc against 1.11 for Slovan Liberec. Sigma Olomouc's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/0.9 for Slovan Liberec.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sigma Olomouc at home · Slovan Liberec away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Sigma OlomoucSlovan Liberec
Sigma Olomouc are 4th after 10 Czech Liga matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); Slovan Liberec are 2nd after 10 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Sigma Olomouc 10, Slovan Liberec 10.
Sigma Olomouc score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Slovan Liberec have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sigma Olomouc
- at Zlin24 Oct · Czech Ligawin 48%
- vs Zbrojovka Brno31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 46%
- at Hradec Králové7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 36%
- vs Slavia Praha21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 19%
- at Mlada Boleslav28 Nov · Czech Ligawin 34%
Slovan Liberec
- vs Baník Ostrava24 Oct · Czech Ligawin 51%
- at Pardubice31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 39%
- vs Bohemians 19057 Nov · Czech Ligawin 42%
- at Sparta Praha22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 22%
- at Teplice28 Nov · Czech Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.