Nyiregyhaza
vs
Budapest Honved
NB I prediction
Our model says: Nyiregyhaza 2–1 Budapest Honved
The model makes it 38% Nyiregyhaza, 25% draw, 37% Budapest Honved — fair odds of 2.63, 4.00 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Nyiregyhaza 1.67, Budapest Honved 1.64.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Nyiregyhaza and Budapest Honved are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Nyiregyhaza are 11th on 8 points from 9 games; Budapest Honved are bottom on 7 points from 8 games — NB I.
- Nyiregyhaza have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Zalaegerszegi TE.
- Budapest Honved are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Ujpest.
- Last 5 meetings: Nyiregyhaza 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 February 2024, ended Budapest Honved 1–1 Nyiregyhaza.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nyiregyhaza vs Budapest Honved
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nyiregyhaza at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nyiregyhaza vs Budapest Honved
Nyiregyhaza
- L1-5away to Zalaegerszegi TE11 October 2026
- D1-1Ferencvarosi TC20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Vasas4 September 2026
- D1-1Paks29 August 2026
- L1-2away to MTK Budapest22 August 2026
Budapest Honved
- D1-1Ujpest11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Puskas Academy18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Gyori ETO FC6 September 2026
- W1-0Zalaegerszegi TE29 August 2026
- L1-2Vasas14 August 2026
What these results say
- Nyiregyhaza did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Nyiregyhaza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nyiregyhaza conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Budapest Honved scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Budapest Honved failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Budapest Honved conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nyiregyhaza | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Budapest Honved | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Nyiregyhaza
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 70% today
Budapest Honved
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 40% today
From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Nyiregyhaza vs Budapest Honved
- 11 February 2024Budapest Honved 1–1 NyiregyhazaNB II
- 13 August 2023Nyiregyhaza 0–0 Budapest HonvedNB II
- 19 September 2021Nyiregyhaza 1–5 Budapest HonvedMagyar Kupa
- 28 February 2015Nyiregyhaza 2–0 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 9 August 2014Budapest Honved 0–1 NyiregyhazaNB I
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nyiregyhaza carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.38 for Budapest Honved. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Nyiregyhaza and 1.64 for Budapest Honved. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nyiregyhaza rate 0.60 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Budapest Honved rate 0.65 and 1.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nyiregyhaza a 0.1% chance of the title and Budapest Honved 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nyiregyhaza the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Nyiregyhaza against 1.64 for Budapest Honved. Nyiregyhaza's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.67 for Budapest Honved.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nyiregyhaza at home · Budapest Honved away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Nyiregyhaza 9, Budapest Honved 8.
Budapest Honved score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Nyiregyhaza have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Nyiregyhaza
- at Puskas Academy24 Oct · NB Iwin 22%
- at Ujpest31 Oct · NB Iwin 25%
- vs Gyori ETO FC7 Nov · NB Iwin 24%
- vs Debreceni VSC21 Nov · NB Iwin 33%
- at Kisvarda FC28 Nov · NB Iwin 30%
Budapest Honved
- vs Debreceni VSC24 Oct · NB Iwin 37%
- vs Kisvarda FC31 Oct · NB Iwin 42%
- at MTK Budapest7 Nov · NB Iwin 33%
- vs Paks21 Nov · NB Iwin 35%
- at Vasas28 Nov · NB Iwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.