Ujpest
vs
Puskas Academy
NB I prediction
Our model says: Ujpest 2–1 Puskas Academy
The model makes it 37% Ujpest, 27% draw, 36% Puskas Academy — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ujpest 1.47, Puskas Academy 1.42.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Ujpest and Puskas Academy are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ujpest are 4th on 15 points from 9 games; Puskas Academy are top on 18 points from 9 games — NB I.
- Ujpest are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Budapest Honved.
- Puskas Academy have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Gyori ETO FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Puskas Academy 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Puskas Academy 2–0 Ujpest.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ujpest vs Puskas Academy
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ujpest at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ujpest vs Puskas Academy
Ujpest
- D1-1away to Budapest Honved11 October 2026
- W2-1Zalaegerszegi TE20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Ferencvarosi TC6 September 2026
- W3-1Vasas29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Paks21 August 2026
Puskas Academy
- W1-0away to Gyori ETO FC11 October 2026
- W3-1Budapest Honved18 September 2026
- L0-1away to Zalaegerszegi TE6 September 2026
- L1-2Ferencvarosi TC30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Vasas22 August 2026
What these results say
- Ujpest conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ujpest scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Ujpest.
- Puskas Academy scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ujpest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ujpest
Chance to finish in the top four · 38% today
Puskas Academy
Chance to finish in the top four · 66% today
From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Ujpest vs Puskas Academy
- 25 April 2026Puskas Academy 2–0 UjpestNB I
- 31 January 2026Ujpest 0–1 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 4 October 2025Puskas Academy 0–0 UjpestNB I
- 9 March 2025Ujpest 1–1 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 2 November 2024Puskas Academy 1–1 UjpestNB I
- 28 July 2024Ujpest 1–2 Puskas AcademyNB I
Leading scorers: Ujpest and Puskas Academy
Ujpest
GoalsAssists
- A. Matko53
- E. Amenyido34
- G. Vlijter32
Puskas Academy
GoalsAssists
- A. Németh31
- P. Dárdai22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ujpest carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.53 for Puskas Academy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Ujpest and 1.42 for Puskas Academy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ujpest rate 0.72 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Puskas Academy rate 0.63 and 1.22.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Puskas Academy, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ujpest a 4.9% chance of the title and Puskas Academy 14.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ujpest the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ujpest against 1.42 for Puskas Academy. Ujpest's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.22 for Puskas Academy.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ujpest at home · Puskas Academy away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Ujpest 9, Puskas Academy 9.
Puskas Academy score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Ujpest have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ujpest
- at Gyori ETO FC24 Oct · NB Iwin 23%
- vs Nyiregyhaza31 Oct · NB Iwin 52%
- at Debreceni VSC7 Nov · NB Iwin 33%
- vs Kisvarda FC21 Nov · NB Iwin 46%
- at MTK Budapest28 Nov · NB Iwin 38%
Puskas Academy
- vs Nyiregyhaza24 Oct · NB Iwin 53%
- vs Debreceni VSC31 Oct · NB Iwin 44%
- at Kisvarda FC7 Nov · NB Iwin 39%
- vs MTK Budapest21 Nov · NB Iwin 50%
- at Paks28 Nov · NB Iwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.