Dinamo Makhachkala
vs
Akron
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Makhachkala 2–1 Akron
The model makes it 46% Dinamo Makhachkala, 25% draw, 29% Akron — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dinamo Makhachkala 1.83, Akron 1.33.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dinamo Makhachkala are 9th on 12 points from 10 games; Akron are 14th on 8 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Dinamo Makhachkala are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to FC Orenburg.
- Akron have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FC Rostov.
- Last 6 meetings: Akron 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 23 April 2026, ended Akron 1–1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Makhachkala at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron
Dinamo Makhachkala
- L0-4away to FC Orenburg10 October 2026
- L1-3CSKA Moscow17 September 2026
- L2-3away to Akhmat13 September 2026
- W2-0Rodina Moskva6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rubin30 August 2026
Akron
- L0-1away to FC Rostov9 October 2026
- W2-0Akhmat17 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Krasnodar13 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Orenburg6 September 2026
- D2-2CSKA Moscow28 August 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Makhachkala failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Akron failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Akron scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Akron conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron
Dinamo Makhachkala
- I. Shumakhovknee injury
- V. KhubulovinjuryDoubtful
Akron
- Y. Zheleznovinjury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Akron | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dinamo Makhachkala
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
Akron
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron
- 23 April 2026Akron 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 8 August 2025Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 AkronPremier League
- 2 May 2025Akron 1–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 26 October 2024Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 AkronPremier League
- 12 May 2024Akron 3–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaFirst League
- 8 October 2023Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 AkronFirst League
Leading scorers: Dinamo Makhachkala and Akron
Dinamo Makhachkala
GoalsAssists
- G. Agalarov50
Akron
GoalsAssists
- Gilson Benchimol42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dinamo Makhachkala carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.08 for Akron. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.33 for Akron. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Makhachkala rate 0.51 in attack and 2.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Akron rate 0.50 and 2.33.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Makhachkala the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala against 1.33 for Akron. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.33 for Akron.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dinamo Makhachkala at home · Akron away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Dinamo Makhachkala 10, Akron 10.
Dinamo Makhachkala score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Akron have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Makhachkala
- at Zenit25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 13%
- vs FC Rostov1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Baltika8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- vs Spartak Moscow22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- at Lokomotiv29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 21%
Akron
- vs Dynamo24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- at Baltika1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- at Spartak Moscow8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 16%
- vs Fakel21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- at Rubin28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.