Newcastle
vs
Aston Villa
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Newcastle 1–2 Aston Villa
The model makes it 33% Newcastle, 24% draw, 43% Aston Villa — fair odds of 3.03, 4.17 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Newcastle 1.68, Aston Villa 2.00.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Aston Villa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Newcastle are 11th on 8 points from 6 games; Aston Villa are 16th on 5 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Newcastle have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Coventry.
- Aston Villa have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Brentford.
- Last 6 meetings: Newcastle 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Aston Villa 1–3 Newcastle.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aston Villa at 43% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Newcastle
- L1-4away to Coventry12 October 2026
- W2-1Hull City19 September 2026
- L1-4away to Leeds14 September 2026
- D2-2Bournemouth5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Tottenham29 August 2026
Aston Villa
- D2-2Brentford10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Tottenham19 September 2026
- L1-2Nottingham Forest12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hull City5 September 2026
- L0-1Arsenal31 August 2026
What these results say
- Newcastle scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Newcastle conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Newcastle had three goals or more.
- Aston Villa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aston Villa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Newcastle
- A. Elangaknee injury
- E. Jaouenmuscle injury
- B. ToureinjuryDoubtful
- J. RamseyinjuryDoubtful
- V. LivramentoinjuryDoubtful
Aston Villa
- A. Onanaknee injury
- G. Hemmingsknee injury
- I. Maatsenankle injury
- M. Ruggeriinjury
- I. MbayeinjuryDoubtful
- R. BarkleyinjuryDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Newcastle
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
Aston Villa
Chance to finish in the top four · 11% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Newcastle vs Aston Villa
- 14 February 2026Aston Villa 1–3 NewcastleFA Cup
- 25 January 2026Newcastle 0–2 Aston VillaPremier League
- 16 August 2025Aston Villa 0–0 NewcastlePremier League
- 19 April 2025Aston Villa 4–1 NewcastlePremier League
- 26 December 2024Newcastle 3–0 Aston VillaPremier League
- 30 January 2024Aston Villa 1–3 NewcastlePremier League
The two sides
Newcastle carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.98 for Aston Villa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Newcastle and 2.00 for Aston Villa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newcastle rate 1.09 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aston Villa rate 1.23 and 0.96.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Newcastle, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Newcastle a 0% chance of the title and Aston Villa 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aston Villa the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Newcastle against 2.00 for Aston Villa. Newcastle's attack/defence rating is 1.09/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/0.96 for Aston Villa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Newcastle at home · Aston Villa away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
NewcastleAston Villa
Newcastle are 11th after 6 Premier League matches (between 3rd and 12th so far); Aston Villa are 14th after 6 (between 14th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Newcastle 6, Aston Villa 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Newcastle
- at Crystal Palace25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Everton29 Oct · League Cupwin 25%
- vs Everton2 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Fulham7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Arsenal21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 17%
Aston Villa
- vs Viking21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 48%
- vs Manchester City24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- at Bournemouth28 Oct · League Cupwin 35%
- vs Fulham31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- at Barcelona3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 12%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.