Manchester City
vs
Ipswich
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Manchester City 3–0 Ipswich
The model makes it 75% Manchester City, 15% draw, 10% Ipswich — fair odds of 1.33, 6.67 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Manchester City 3.15, Ipswich 0.91.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Manchester City are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Manchester City are top on 18 points from 6 games; Ipswich are 10th on 9 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Liverpool.
- Ipswich have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Fulham.
- Last 2 meetings: Manchester City 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 January 2025, ended Ipswich 0–6 Manchester City.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Manchester City vs Ipswich
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manchester City at 75% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 310 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Manchester City vs Ipswich
Manchester City
- W3-0away to Liverpool11 October 2026
- W5-3Sunderland20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Manchester United13 September 2026
- W1-0Coventry5 September 2026
- W4-1away to Crystal Palace28 August 2026
Ipswich
- W2-1Fulham10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Everton19 September 2026
- W3-2away to Crystal Palace12 September 2026
- L0-2Liverpool4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Manchester United30 August 2026
What these results say
- Manchester City won every one of these 5 matches.
- Manchester City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ipswich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 18 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Manchester City
Chance to win the league · 62% today
Ipswich
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 25% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Manchester City vs Ipswich
- 19 January 2025Ipswich 0–6 Manchester CityPremier League
- 24 August 2024Manchester City 4–1 IpswichPremier League
Leading scorers: Manchester City and Ipswich
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland60
- R. Cherki42
- A. Semenyo23
Ipswich
GoalsAssists
- Emersonn21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Manchester City carry a model rating of 7.33 against 6.79 for Ipswich. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.15 goals for Manchester City and 0.91 for Ipswich. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Manchester City rate 1.65 in attack and 0.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ipswich rate 1.04 and 1.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Manchester City a 61.8% chance of the title and Ipswich 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester City the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.15 expected goals for Manchester City against 0.91 for Ipswich. Manchester City's attack/defence rating is 1.65/0.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/1.19 for Ipswich.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Manchester City at home · Ipswich away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Manchester CityIpswich
Manchester City are 1st after 6 Premier League matches (between 1st and 7th so far); Ipswich are 9th after 6 (between 4th and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Manchester City 6, Ipswich 6.
Ipswich score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Manchester City have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Manchester City
- vs AEK Athens FC20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 58%
- at Aston Villa24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 54%
- vs Brighton28 Oct · League Cupwin 56%
- vs Brighton31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 52%
- at RB Leipzig4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
Ipswich
- vs Nottingham Forest23 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Hull City31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Bournemouth8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Tottenham21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Aston Villa28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.