Lokomotiv
vs
FC Krasnodar
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Lokomotiv 2–1 FC Krasnodar
The model makes it 36% Lokomotiv, 28% draw, 36% FC Krasnodar — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lokomotiv 1.38, FC Krasnodar 1.40.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Lokomotiv and FC Krasnodar are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lokomotiv are 13th on 10 points from 10 games; FC Krasnodar are 4th on 21 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Lokomotiv have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win away to Fakel.
- FC Krasnodar are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Zenit.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 23 November 2025, ended Lokomotiv 1–1 FC Krasnodar.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lokomotiv vs FC Krasnodar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lokomotiv at 36% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lokomotiv vs FC Krasnodar
Lokomotiv
- W5-0away to Fakel10 October 2026
- D1-1Krylia Sovetov16 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zenit12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Baltika6 September 2026
- L0-1Dynamo29 August 2026
FC Krasnodar
- L2-3Zenit10 October 2026
- D0-0away to FC Orenburg17 September 2026
- D1-1Akron13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Krylia Sovetov5 September 2026
- W1-0FC Rostov29 August 2026
What these results say
- Lokomotiv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Krasnodar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Krasnodar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Lokomotiv vs FC Krasnodar
Lokomotiv
No absences reported.
FC Krasnodar
- N. Krivtsovmuscle injury
- V. Tormenasuspended (red card)
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 10 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lokomotiv
Chance to finish in the top four · 7% today
FC Krasnodar
Chance to finish in the top four · 72% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv vs FC Krasnodar
- 23 November 2025Lokomotiv 1–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
- 26 July 2025FC Krasnodar 1–2 LokomotivPremier League
- 8 December 2024FC Krasnodar 0–0 LokomotivPremier League
- 1 September 2024Lokomotiv 0–3 FC KrasnodarPremier League
- 31 March 2024Lokomotiv Moscow 1–1 KrasnodarPremier League
- 19 August 2023Krasnodar 1–1 Lokomotiv MoscowPremier League
Leading scorers: Lokomotiv and FC Krasnodar
Lokomotiv
GoalsAssists
- N. Komlichenko31
FC Krasnodar
GoalsAssists
- Batxi31
- N. Krivtsov31
- Jubal30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lokomotiv carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.47 for FC Krasnodar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Lokomotiv and 1.40 for FC Krasnodar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv rate 0.61 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Krasnodar rate 0.69 and 1.47.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Krasnodar, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lokomotiv a 0.1% chance of the title and FC Krasnodar 14.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lokomotiv the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Lokomotiv against 1.40 for FC Krasnodar. Lokomotiv's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.47 for FC Krasnodar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lokomotiv at home · FC Krasnodar away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Lokomotiv 10, FC Krasnodar 10.
FC Krasnodar score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Lokomotiv have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lokomotiv
- at FC Rostov25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- vs Spartak Moscow1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- vs Rubin6 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- at Rodina Moskva22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 53%
- vs Dinamo Makhachkala29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 55%
FC Krasnodar
- vs Baltika24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 49%
- at Rodina Moskva31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 60%
- vs CSKA Moscow7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Dynamo22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at FC Rostov29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.