Krylia Sovetov
vs
Fakel
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Krylia Sovetov 2–0 Fakel
The model makes it 57% Krylia Sovetov, 24% draw, 19% Fakel — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Krylia Sovetov 1.98, Fakel 0.91.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Krylia Sovetov: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Krylia Sovetov are 10th on 12 points from 10 games; Fakel are bottom on 3 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Krylia Sovetov are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Spartak Moscow.
- Fakel have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to Lokomotiv.
- Last 6 meetings: Fakel 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2025, ended Fakel 1–1 Krylia Sovetov.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Krylia Sovetov at 57% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel
Krylia Sovetov
- D1-1Spartak Moscow10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv16 September 2026
- W2-1Rodina Moskva11 September 2026
- D2-2FC Krasnodar5 September 2026
- D3-3away to Akhmat29 August 2026
Fakel
- L0-5Lokomotiv10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Spartak Moscow16 September 2026
- D2-2Baltika12 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Rostov5 September 2026
- L0-1Zenit29 August 2026
What these results say
- Krylia Sovetov went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fakel did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fakel conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel
Krylia Sovetov
- S. PesjakovinjuryDoubtful
Fakel
No absences reported.
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Krylia Sovetov | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 16 | Fakel | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Krylia Sovetov
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
Fakel
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 93% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel
- 24 May 2025Fakel 1–1 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 11 August 2024Krylia Sovetov 2–0 FakelPremier League
- 25 April 2024Fakel Voronezh 0–1 Krylya SovetovPremier League
- 2 September 2023Krylya Sovetov 3–0 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
- 28 May 2023Fakel Voronezh 2–1 Krylya SovetovPremier League
- 27 November 2022Krylya Sovetov 1–0 Fakel VoronezhCup
Leading scorers: Krylia Sovetov and Fakel
Krylia Sovetov
GoalsAssists
- A. Rahmanović30
Fakel
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Krylia Sovetov carry a model rating of 6.22 against 5.94 for Fakel. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.91 for Fakel. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Krylia Sovetov rate 0.56 in attack and 1.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fakel rate 0.37 and 2.29.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Krylia Sovetov the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov against 0.91 for Fakel. Krylia Sovetov's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/2.29 for Fakel.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Krylia Sovetov at home · Fakel away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Krylia Sovetov 10, Fakel 10.
Krylia Sovetov score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Fakel have let in 5 there.
Fakel score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Krylia Sovetov have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Krylia Sovetov
- at Rubin24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Zenit2 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs FC Orenburg8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at FC Rostov20 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Dynamo29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 28%
Fakel
- vs Rodina Moskva24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Rubin31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- vs Dynamo7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 16%
- at Akron21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs Spartak Moscow30 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.