Lincoln
vs
West Ham
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Lincoln 0-6 West Ham.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Lincoln, 27% draw, 50% West Ham — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Lincoln 0.92, West Ham 1.61.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Championship predictions
Model insights: Lincoln vs West Ham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Ham at 50% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lincoln vs West Ham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. WickensG
- 25D. ElereweD
- 22T. HamerD
- 15S. BradleyD
- 20C. ElderD
- 14C. McGrandlesM
- 24I. VarfolomeevM
- 27C. OgbeneM
- 33D. OyegokeM
- 18B. HouseM
- 34F. DraperF
- 8T. BaylissM
- 4A. CoubișD
- 46J. GauciG
- 16D. JefferiesM
- 26Y. KonakM
- 11M. LadefogedF
- 3A. ReachM
- 17R. StreetF
- 6R. TowlerD
- 1M. HermansenG
- 34J. VeltmanD
- 15K. MavropanosD
- 3M. KilmanD
- 5MoratoD
- 20J. BowenM
- 7A. EngelsM
- 17M. KantéM
- 10M. SolomonM
- 19PabloM
- 9J. PiroeF
- 11V. CastellanosF
- 58A. GolambeckisD
- 14D. MukasaM
- 61L. OrfordM
- 30O. ScarlesD
- 28T. SoučekM
- 2K. Walker-PetersD
- 35E. AustböF
- 23A. AreolaG
Form going into Lincoln vs West Ham
Lincoln
- L0-3away to Sheffield Utd10 October 2026
- L1-2Swansea19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bristol City15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Preston12 September 2026
West Ham
- D1-1QPR9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Millwall19 September 2026
- W6-0Wrexham11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Bolton8 September 2026
What these results say
- Lincoln scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- West Ham went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- West Ham scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- West Ham conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lincoln | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 11 |
| 3 | West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 12 | +17 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lincoln vs West Ham
- 14 October 2026Lincoln 0–6 West HamChampionship
- 27 September 2023Lincoln 0–1 West HamLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Lincoln and West Ham
Lincoln
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen65
- K. Mavropanos50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 0.92 goals for Lincoln and 1.61 for West Ham; the game produced 0 and 6.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Konstantinos Mavropanos 45' (West Ham), Edvin Austbö 48' (West Ham), Jarrod Bowen 50' (West Ham), Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus 75' (West Ham), Tomáš Souček 79' (West Ham), Tomáš Souček 89' (West Ham).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Ham the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Lincoln against 1.61 for West Ham. Lincoln's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.07 for West Ham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.