Portsmouth
vs
Sheffield Utd
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Portsmouth 3-2 Sheffield Utd.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Portsmouth, 28% draw, 33% Sheffield Utd — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Portsmouth 1.44, Sheffield Utd 1.30.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Championship predictions
Model insights: Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Portsmouth at 39% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. SchmidG
- 22Z. SwansonD
- 5R. PooleD
- 55M. DiaD
- 16J. MeghomaD
- 7M. PackM
- 37I. MohamedM
- 11A. KamaraM
- 10A. SegecicM
- 25R. Kavuma McQueenM
- 29M. MilovanovićF
- 38E. AdamsM
- 21K. AndersonM
- 27O. BaileyM
- 31D. BielicaG
- 9C. BishopF
- 24T. DevlinM
- 32E. KennyM
- 19R. SheinM
- 30B. KillipG
- 1M. CooperG
- 8H. ChoudhuryD
- 5J. TangangaD
- 15L. KitchingD
- 3S. McCallumD
- 19T. ChongM
- 42Sydie PeckM
- 7J. RothwellM
- 22B. BreretonM
- 9T. CannonF
- 45P. BamfordF
- 14H. BurrowsD
- 23T. CampbellF
- 17A. DaviesG
- 11R. DonovanM
- 25M. McGuinnessD
- 27K. PhillipsM
- 44J. RiedewaldM
- 10J. AyewF
- 4O. ArblasterM
Form going into Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd
Portsmouth
- L0-1away to Southampton11 October 2026
- D2-2Blackburn19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton12 September 2026
- W2-0Cardiff5 September 2026
Sheffield Utd
- W3-0Lincoln10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Stoke City19 September 2026
- L0-1Wolves13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Blackburn8 September 2026
What these results say
- Portsmouth failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Portsmouth had two goals or fewer.
- Sheffield Utd scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sheffield Utd conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sheffield Utd had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Portsmouth | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd
- 14 October 2026Portsmouth 3–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 14 February 2026Portsmouth 0–1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 26 November 2025Sheffield Utd 3–0 PortsmouthChampionship
- 8 February 2025Sheffield Utd 2–1 PortsmouthChampionship
- 28 September 2024Portsmouth 0–0 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 20 April 2013Portsmouth 3–0 Sheffield UtdLeague One
Leading scorers: Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd
Portsmouth
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Sheffield Utd
GoalsAssists
- P. Bamford41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.44 goals for Portsmouth and 1.30 for Sheffield Utd; the game produced 3 and 2.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Zak Swanson 41' (Portsmouth), Adrian Segecic 54' (Portsmouth), Japhet Tanganga 59' (Sheffield Utd), Thomas Cannon 67' (Sheffield Utd), Ebou Adams 89' (Portsmouth).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Portsmouth the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Portsmouth against 1.30 for Sheffield Utd. Portsmouth's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.4 for Sheffield Utd.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.