Burnley
vs
Wolves
Championship prediction
Our model says: Burnley 1–0 Wolves
The model makes it 42% Burnley, 29% draw, 29% Wolves — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Burnley 1.41, Wolves 1.08.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Burnley are 21st on 8 points from 10 games; Wolves are 10th on 14 points from 9 games — Championship.
- Burnley are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Charlton.
- Wolves have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Bolton.
- Last 6 meetings: Wolves 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Burnley 1–1 Wolves.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Burnley vs Wolves
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burnley at 42% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Burnley vs Wolves
Burnley
- D2-2Charlton13 October 2026
- W4-0away to Watford10 October 2026
- D1-1Derby19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swansea12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wrexham8 September 2026
Wolves
- L1-3Bolton13 October 2026
- L0-1away to Middlesbrough10 October 2026
- W1-0West Brom20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sheffield Utd13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham6 September 2026
What these results say
- Burnley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Burnley failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burnley conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wolves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Burnley vs Wolves
Burnley
- A. Barnesmuscle injury
- A. Ramseyhamstring injury
- B. Humphreysmuscle injury
- E. Agyeimuscle injury
- H. Mejbrihamstring injury
- J. Beyerhamstring injury
- M. Obafemiinactive
- J. Banelmuscle injuryDoubtful
- J. Cullenknee injuryDoubtful
- M. Tresor NdayishimiyeinactiveDoubtful
- S. SamboinactiveDoubtful
- Z. AmdouniinactiveDoubtful
Wolves
- B. Traoreinjury
- B. Traoreinjury
- R. Jimenezknee injury
- Y. Mosqueraankle injury
- M. JiinjuryDoubtful
- R. Gomesfoot injuryDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Burnley
Chance to finish in the top four · 14% today
Wolves
Chance to finish in the top four · 30% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Burnley vs Wolves
- 24 May 2026Burnley 1–1 WolvesPremier League
- 26 October 2025Wolves 2–3 BurnleyPremier League
- 28 August 2024Wolves 2–0 BurnleyLeague Cup
- 2 April 2024Burnley 1–1 WolvesPremier League
- 5 December 2023Wolves 1–0 BurnleyPremier League
- 9 July 2022Wolves 3–0 BurnleyFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Burnley and Wolves
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Burnley carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.68 for Wolves. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Burnley and 1.08 for Wolves. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Burnley rate 0.84 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wolves rate 0.78 and 1.11.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Wolves, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burnley a 1.6% chance of the title and Wolves 5.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burnley the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Burnley against 1.08 for Wolves. Burnley's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.11 for Wolves.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Burnley at home · Wolves away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BurnleyWolves
Burnley are 21st after 10 Championship matches (between 10th and 24th so far); Wolves are 6th after 9 (between 1st and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Burnley 10, Wolves 9.
Wolves score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Burnley have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Burnley
- at Lincoln24 Oct · Championshipwin 45%
- vs Portsmouth31 Oct · Championshipwin 53%
- at QPR3 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
- at Cardiff7 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
- vs Blackburn22 Nov · Championshipwin 49%
Wolves
- vs Portsmouth20 Oct · Championshipwin 51%
- vs Watford24 Oct · Championshipwin 61%
- vs Cardiff31 Oct · Championshipwin 49%
- at Bristol City4 Nov · Championshipwin 39%
- at Wrexham7 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.